The trend in the degree to which the world’s stock markets move in sync with each other has fallen to the lowest level in 20 years.
The lower correlation enhances the potential risk-reducing benefits of diversification.
This may be especially good news right now since stocks may be due for a pullback.
Stocks are off to a strong start this year, but the bulls aren’t running in a herd. Bull markets can be found in the stocks of countries around the world, but their movements are less correlated with each other than they have been in the past 20 years. The change brings the return of an important diversification benefit for holders of globally diversified portfolios.
Zigs and Zags
Traditionally, the logic behind including international stocks in a portfolio was not just for their potential returns, but also for the benefit of risk-reducing diversification. The thinking is that when one market would zig, another would zag, resulting in a smoother path to financial goals.
Sadly, for much of the 2000s, global diversification had all but faded away as stocks around the world increasingly moved in sync with each other. In our view, there were a couple of key reasons for this.
Global stocks were collectively impacted by the U.S.-focused technology and housing bubbles.
The increasingly integrated global economy boosted international sales to exceed domestic sales for the global companies in the MSCI All Country World Index.
These factors contributed to higher correlations across stock markets: when one market would zig, the others would zig too.
Return to normal?
Fortunately for investors, diversification has made a comeback. Measured statistically, the trend in correlation between stock markets of the Group of 20 nations (plus Spain, which is a quasi-member), that together make up 80% of world GDP, peaked in 2011 and has since fallen to levels not seen in 20 years, as you can see in the chart below.
Trend in global stock market correlation slides to 20 year lows
Daily one-year rolling correlation of one month percent change in MSCI indexes for countries in G20 and Spain. Source: Charles Schwab, Macrobond, MSCI data as of 4/12/2019.
This decline in correlation has taken place despite broad economic growth in these economies and in the trade among them. On the chart above, it almost appears to be a return to “normal” for correlation as the trend illustrated by the standard deviation has moved back to the average level that prevailed for more than 25 years through the 1970s, 1980s, and for much of the 1990s prior to the bubbles in tech and housing.
If sustained, this lower correlation—and the risk-reducing benefits of diversification it suggests as markets move more independently of each other—is particularly good news right now. Stocks may be due for a pullback given recent warning signs such as inversion of the yield curve.
Will the decline in correlation to a 20 year low persist or might global stock markets all slide together? We only have to look back to last year for some evidence that correlations may remain relatively low. Stock markets around the world suffered varying degrees of losses last year, including a sharp bear market decline late in the year. Yet, correlations rose only to the top of the downward-sloping range, rather than all the way back to prior highs of 2011. This offers some confidence that even during bear markets correlations may remain lower than in the 2000s.
The driver of lower correlations among countries seems to be lower correlations among sectors that drive the stock markets of different countries. For example, energy stocks have had a wild ride in recent years, while tech stocks have been relatively steadily climbers. Financial stocks have been volatile and tied to the movements in the yield curve. As long as these divergent drivers keep sector correlations from rising, country correlations should also remain relatively low.
In our view, the main risk to the trend of lower correlations is a global event that causes all sectors and countries’ stock markets to move down together. The global economic, financial and market system now seems better prepared to manage the shocks of the past—such as the 2000-02 “Tech Wreck” and the 2008-09 global financial crisis—were they to repeat in the future. But there are other increased vulnerabilities that could cause a shock to turn into another crisis and result in a return to high correlations, including:
High debt levels
Dependence on international sales
Little fiscal or monetary policy ammunition
The rise of passive investments
For insights on all of these see our recent article: Where Will The Next Crisis Come From?. While plausible, these vulnerabilities developing into a crisis are not part of our base case, at least for the coming year or two.
The return to the lower average correlation across stock markets not seen in 20 years has the potential to offer globally diversified investors the benefit of less volatility without hampering returns on the path to financial goals—in essence decreasing risk without decreasing return.
The information provided here is for general informational purposes only and should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The investment strategies mentioned here may not be suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decision.
All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market or economic conditions. Data contained herein from third party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results and the opinions presented cannot be viewed as an indicator of future performance.
International investments involve additional risks, which include differences in financial accounting standards, currency fluctuations, geopolitical risk, foreign taxes and regulations, and the potential for illiquid markets. Investing in emerging markets may accentuate these risks.
The MSCI World Index captures large and mid-cap representation across 23 Developed Markets countries. With 1,632 constituents, the index covers approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in each country.
The MSCI World Growth Index captures large and mid cap securities exhibiting overall growth style characteristics across 23 Developed Markets countries. The growth investment style characteristics for index construction are defined using five variables: long-term forward EPS growth rate, short-term forward EPS growth rate, current internal growth rate and long-term historical EPS growth trend and long-term historical sales per share growth trend.
The MSCI World Value Index captures large and mid cap securities exhibiting overall value style characteristics across 23 Developed Markets countries. The value investment style characteristics for index construction are defined using three variables: book value to price, 12-month forward earnings to price and dividend yield.
The MSCI EAFE Index is an equity index which captures large and mid cap representation across Developed Markets countries around the world, excluding the US and Canada. With 928 constituents, the index covers approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in each country.
The MSCI EAFE Large Cap Index is an equity index which captures large cap representation across Developed Markets countries around the world, excluding the US and Canada. With 404 constituents, the index covers approximately 70% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in each country.
The MSCI EAFE Small Cap Index is an equity index which captures small cap representation across Developed Markets countries around the world, excluding the US and Canada. With 2,307 constituents, the index covers approximately 14% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in each country.
The MSCI USA Index is designed to measure the performance of the large and mid cap segments of the US market. With 622 constituents, the index covers approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in the US.