Commentary

We Are Here: Thinking About Recession Risk

The US has had 12 recessions since 1945. Chief Economist Brian Horrigan contemplates the potential for unlucky #13.

Commentary

Corporate Health Indicators Signal an Economy in Transition

Our survey on corporate health in the third quarter painted a picture of an economy in transition. Even as some key fundamentals showed a marked deterioration from the previous quarter, others, notably the outlook for corporate credit, displayed surprising resilience.

Commentary

Market Risk and Midterm Elections: Eyes on the Senate

Does it matter who wins the Senate? It matters a great deal. Read our latest blog regarding midterm elections.

Commentary

After the Storm: Hurricane Ian’s Potential Impact on Municipal Credit in Florida

You might be surprised to learn that despite the devastation, we do not expect Hurricane Ian to have a material credit impact in Florida.

Commentary

Three Big Questions on the BoE’s Operations

Senior Sovereign Analyst Jon Levy tackles three big questions on the Bank of England's recent operations.

White Paper

Investment Outlook - October 2022

The global economy appears to be headed for a downturn and we believe the clock is ticking on the US cycle as well.

Commentary

Topsy-Turvy UK Markets Reveal Risks in Policy Responses to the Energy Crisis

Senior Sovereign Analyst Jon Levy looks at this week’s rate and currency shocks in the UK and shares what he believes is a root of the problem.

Commentary

Quantitative Easing’s Positive Legacy for US Mortgage Holders

As the Federal Reserve raises rates in an effort to stifle inflation, what are the implications for US mortgage holders?

White Paper

Under Pressure: The Global Implications of a European Gas Crisis

The aftershocks of Europe's gas crisis could shape asset prices in a dynamic manner for years to come – both in Europe and globally.

Commentary

Global GDP Themes and Forecasts (Infographic)

What's next for global growth? Our Macro Strategies team shares a regional breakdown of their growth expectations across the globe.

Commentary

Surprises from the First Half of 2022: Russia’s Unexpected Invasion of Ukraine

So many critical economic and market developments this year can be traced back in one way or another to the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Commentary

Surprises from the First Half of 2022: Positive Trends in EM Despite Headwinds

You might think these headwinds would be broadly negative for EM debt, but we see bright spots within the EM sovereign and corporate landscape.

Commentary

Why We Think Corporate Health Can Withstand an Economic Slowdown

Corporate fundamentals have been deteriorating in the US. Over the past six months we have seen meaningful erosion in profit margins, pricing power and the outlook for credit.

Commentary

Surprises from the First Half of 2022: Value Reemerging in TIPS

Concerns regarding inflation are almost everywhere you look—unless you happen to be looking at the Treasury bond market.

Commentary

Surprises from the First Half of 2022: A Rare Macro and Geopolitical Period for the Bank Loan Market

Exceptional circumstances roiled the loan market in the first half. It's impossible to say what will happen next, but the loan market's floating-rate feature could offer value in multiple scenarios versus other fixed income assets.