Commentary

It's Not Enough to "Invest in What You Know"

“Invest in what you know.” You’ve likely heard this advice before.

Commentary

Notes on Inflation

The world will be going from an era of zero rates and loose monetary policy to higher rates and likely slower growth, except in certain sectors. Adjusting to this change will be both problematic and also full of potential opportunities.

Commentary

Our Inflation Nightmare Will Flatline in 6 Months

Investors are running scared.

Commentary

Inflation Sinks In

Remember when inflation was going to be transitory? Good times. I was in that camp myself early on, as were some serious analysts I greatly respect (and still do). Then the data began to show core inflation would be stickier than expected, and I turned in my Team Transitory T-shirt. I appreciate people who admit their mistakes. We all make them.

Commentary

Why the Higher Education Short Didn’t Work

I had dinner with a local friend of mine last week.

Commentary

Labor Mysteries

Many ask if Jerome Powell can emulate Volcker. We will certainly find out. But much has changed in 42 years. Does Powell even need to emulate Volcker? Here, some prominent economists disagree. Today we’ll talk about the issues.

Commentary

What If the Bear Market Isn’t Over?

A few weeks ago, I said the bear market was over. What if it isn’t? Don’t interpret this as cold feet—it’s good to understand the other side of the argument.

Commentary

I Use This Stock-picking Shortcut Every Single Day

Market veterans will tell you there are no shortcuts in investing

Commentary

Rate Hikes Without End

The world does not need another take on Jackson Hole. But here we go.

Commentary

Your Inflation May Vary

Everyone’s inflation experience is unique. We all have our particular spending patterns, so our experience will feel worse if inflation is more severe in the goods and services we normally buy. Or we might not notice it as much as others do.

Commentary

People Are Still Bearish

19% off the lows, and people are still bearish.

Commentary

Muddling Through Stagflation

Our own government cannot afford a short end of the curve much higher than it is now, and our own fiscal and monetary decisions have held down the long end of the curve in what I believe is a multi-decade period ahead that is best referred to as “Japanification”

Commentary

The Bear Market Is Over

It is my belief that the bear market is over.

Commentary

Curving Toward Stagflation

The latest data shows inflation is still with us at an 8.5% annual rate. That means we can expect the Fed to keep tightening, trying to reduce demand and relieve pressure on consumer prices.

Commentary

The Simplest Way to Know Everything About Finance

Twenty years ago, people on trading floors at investment banks worked in silos.