Commentary

Done With Deglobalization?

The global economy’s dire and deteriorating prospects, together with the scale of the climate challenge, have apparently opened world leaders’ eyes to the risks that deglobalization poses. But it remains to be seen whether this realization will be followed by the action needed to reverse course.

Commentary

Will Crypto Survive?

With a storyline full of celebrities, politicians, sex, and drugs, the future looks bright for producers of feature films and documentaries about the astonishing collapse of FTX.

Commentary

China’s Diminishing Returns

Gone are the days when China could point to soaring real-estate prices and rising incomes to justify endless new construction.

Commentary

Secular Inflation

After enjoying a long period of deflationary conditions, the global economy is being pushed by a wide range of forces toward a new and more difficult equilibrium.

Commentary

A New Chance for the World Bank

The World Bank should be a major vehicle for crisis response, post-conflict reconstruction, and, most importantly, for supporting the huge investments necessary for sustainable and healthy global development.

Commentary

The Stagflationary Debt Crisis Is Here

The Great Moderation has given way to the Great Stagflation, which will be characterized by instability and a confluence of slow-motion negative supply shocks.

Commentary

The Cost of the Fed’s Challenged Credibility

After previously eschewing interest-rate hikes, the US Federal Reserve has been tightening monetary policy at an unprecedented rate.

Commentary

Why US Inflation Is Headed Down

Despite August’s disappointing inflation numbers, the US economy is uniquely equipped to mitigate and overcome the current price surge, owing to its relative energy and food independence, abundance of immigrant labor, strong production capacity, and the capital needed to boost domestic manufacturing.

Commentary

Will Truss Rehabilitate Keynes?

According to conventional economic thinking, incoming British Prime Minister Liz Truss’s economic experiment with borrowing and spending will produce disaster.

Commentary

Will the Dollar’s Surge End in Whiplash?

Some earlier big run-ups in the US currency’s value, including in the mid-1980s and the early 2000s, were eventually followed by sharp declines.

Commentary

Chess and Geopolitics in the Supercomputer Era

The outcome of next year's world championship chess match will likely hinge as much on technological superiority as on individual human ingenuity.

Commentary

From Great Moderation to Great Stagflation

For decades, relative global stability, sound economic-policy management, and the steady expansion of trade to and from emerging markets combined to keep costs down.

Commentary

Fiscal Policy Should Return to Fundamentals

The longstanding argument that go-go Keynesian fiscal stimulus is the answer to every imaginable economic shock has been exposed as bankrupt.

Commentary

The Problem with the Current Russia Sanctions Regime

There is much debate about the effectiveness of Western sanctions, the Ukraine war’s implications for markets and the global economy, and what the West’s next steps should be. While there are few good options, some are clearly worse than others.

Commentary

The Energy Price Roller Coaster

In the longer term, oil and gas prices look set to rise unless investment picks up sharply, which seems unlikely given current policy guidance.