Commentary

A Menu of Global Opportunities

One of the reasons we formed RBA in 2009 was we thought the US was entering perhaps the biggest bull market of our careers.

Commentary

Why China?

It has always been important to separate one’s political views from one’s investment portfolio.

Commentary

Profits Recession Ahead

Investors see a myriad of unknowns right now, and popular discussion continues to focus on a dichotomy between growth and cyclicals. We think there is a third choice that's being ignored.

Commentary

The 4 Stages of a Rate Cycle

We more than doubled our portfolios’ duration in a single day this summer.

Commentary

Bubbles and Bears

Bubbles don't deflate overnight and bear markets always signal a change in leadership, yet investors appear eager to jump back into owning prior cycle winners.

Commentary

Charts for the Beach – 2022

It’s time for our annual August report, “Charts for the Beach.” Each year we highlight five of our favorite charts we think consensus is currently overlooking. Load up the cooler, get your towel and chair, and enjoy the charts! And, watch out for those sharks!!

Commentary

Investors Have Capitulated So Much, They’re Bullish

We’ve all heard the famous Yogi Berra quote, “Nobody goes there anymore. It's too crowded.” Investors today seem jazzed up on an opposite but similarly absurd concept: Wall Street thinks it’s a huge buying opportunity because everybody’s too bearish. In his latest Quick Insight, Dan Suzuki analyzes explains seven signs that suggest that investors have yet to capitulate.

Commentary

Japan and China: Shelter from Tightening Liquidity

Global liquidity has tightened dramatically this year, which may be a headwind to global equity markets. However, not all central banks are tightening because not all countries have an inflation problem. Our latest research insight explains why we think Japan and China warrant a closer look.

Commentary

The Only Two Certainties for Second Half of 2022

The investing world seems highly uncertain these days. Investors are understandably having trouble balancing earnings, the Fed, fiscal policy, inflation, economic growth, disease control, and geo- and US politics. Read our latest report to learn about the two certain events that are central to our current portfolio positioning.

Commentary

The Fixed Income Water is Getting Warmer

Given year-to-date fixed income returns, one would be forgiven if they never wanted to own the asset class again. Such a view, however, could prove costly as, for the first time in a year, areas of the market are starting to look attractive.

Commentary

Bear Markets Signal Leadership Change

Bear markets always signal a leadership change within the overall equity market. The leadership going into a bear market is rarely, if ever, the leadership coming out. Because of this rule of thumb, we view bear markets as periods of extreme opportunity.

Commentary

Bond Investors Underperformed Despite A Bull Market. Now What?

In our latest insight, we analyze the recent DALBAR study to determine how well (or not well) active fixed-income investors performed during the bull market and explain what we believe will be the best approach for fixed-income investing given the start of a pro-inflation paradigm shift.

Commentary

The Biggest Risk to Portfolios Today

To start, let’s discuss what diversification is and what it is not.

Commentary

The Start Of A New Investment Paradigm

The global economy seems to be significantly changing, yet investors remain very hesitant to alter their basic portfolio strategies. As they did around 2010, investors are using the old leadership as their portfolios’ core. We think this could be a mistake.

Commentary

These Are Not The Recession Signals You’re Looking For

The 2s10s curve is once again knocking on the door of becoming inverted (while some curves like the 3s10s and 5s10s already are), causing quite a stir among market watchers that recession is imminent. In his latest report, Michael Contopoulos examines the 2s10s yield curve movement leading up to the past 6 times the US economy slipped into a recession and discusses what could be different this time.