All eight indexes on our world watch list posted losses through September 26, 2022. The top performer is India's BSE SENSEX with a YTD loss of 1.9%. London's FTSE 100 is in second with a loss of 4.92% and Tokyo's Nikkei 225 is in third with a loss of 8.20%. Coming in last is Germany's DAXK with a loss of 25.47% YTD.
While 2022 has been a challenging year for nearly every segment of the capital markets, it comes with a silver lining for income investors: higher yields.
The Dallas Fed released its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (TMOS) for September. The latest general business activity index came in at -17.2, down 4.3 from last month. All figures are seasonally adjusted.
Oil has been routing since summer after reaching historic highs of over $130 per barrel, but we may see some relief soon as near-term events may trigger a rally.
Led by declines in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) decreased to a neutral value in August from +0.29 in July. Three of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index made positive contributions in August, but three categories deteriorated from July. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, moved up to +0.01 in August from –0.08 in July
Precious metals markets are trying to tough this week despite another large rate hike by the Federal Reserve.
“Invest in what you know.” You’ve likely heard this advice before.
The pandemic drove up debt, and higher interest rates are adding to the burden.
We had been bullish on stocks all the way back to March 2009, when mark-to market accounting was fixed and the Financial Panic started to recede
Gold plumbed its lowest since 2020 while copper and iron ore slumped, as the dollar’s rally to a fresh record added to fears for the global economic outlook.
Virtual money, digital gold, inflation hedge, uncorrelated asset, store of value: those are phrases once used by Bitcoin’s fans to describe the cryptocurrency’s virtues. Its new narrative? A Bitcoin is a Bitcoin.
Insurance protects against losses – fires, floods or a wrecked car. Because of the life-altering consequences of such as loss, clients rarely question the cost of the insurance. When viewed through an analogous framework, the cost of lifetime-income insurance, such as a GLWB, is fairly priced.
Frequent flyers are accustomed to turbulence on some flights. Indeed, many expect it. Despite such anticipation, however, the turbulence can once in a while create significant anxiety among even the most seasoned travelers.
Promising a return to a Norman Rockwell-esque past where everyone had great jobs, financial stability and a shot at the American dream makes for great politics, but terrible economic policies.
The great tech selloff of 2022 is far from over as investors brace for earnings misses that may spur a more than 10% plunge in the Nasdaq 100.
Global financial firms, still smarting from multi-billion dollar losses in Russia, are now reassessing the risks of doing business in Greater China after an escalation of tensions over Taiwan.
How do taxes impact the 4% rule for retirement spending?
Bond mutual funds trade daily and are highly liquid, but the underlying securities are often highly illiquid, trading very infrequently. This mismatch means that bond fund pricing is unreliable, creating risks, especially for buy-and-hold investors.
In a surprise move, General Motors Co. this week joined forces with the Environmental Defense Fund (EDF) to recommend tougher emissions rules for passenger vehicles. But skeptics remain unconvinced by the company’s professed commitment to going green, citing GM’s history of battling tougher fuel economy rules.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the US economy may be entering a “new normal” following disruptions from the Covid-19 pandemic.
For years, asset allocators had it easy: Buy the biggest American tech companies and watch the returns rack up. Those days are gone, buried under a crush of central bank rate hikes that are rewriting the playbooks for investment managers across Wall Street.
In times like these, I’m reminded of Robert Rubin. The former US Treasury Secretary in the Clinton administration was unequivocal that a strong dollar was in the country’s best interests, and the government should be careful not to undermine trust in the currency.
Who is the real “change candidate” after 12 years of Conservative government in the UK: Keir Starmer, the leader of the opposition Labour party? Or Liz Truss, the fourth successive Tory prime minister?
Oil markets are broken. Extreme volatility and a lack of liquidity mean that crude futures have become disconnected from tight physical oil markets. At least that’s what some loud voices in the oil world are telling us.
Week by week, the bond-market crash just keeps getting worse and there’s no clear end in sight.
The S&P 500 spent four out of five days in the red this week, tumbling on Friday. The index is down 22.51% YTD and is 23% below its record close.
The yield on the 10-year note ended September 23, 2022, at 3.69%, the 2-year note ended at 4.20%, and the 30-year at 3.61%.
The world will be going from an era of zero rates and loose monetary policy to higher rates and likely slower growth, except in certain sectors. Adjusting to this change will be both problematic and also full of potential opportunities.
Portfolio Manager John Paul Lech explains why investors in emerging markets should go upstream in order to leverage the long-term power of the EV sector.
Inflation is top of mind for consumers and market participants. In the United States, many are questioning whether student loan forgiveness will make inflation worse, and if the recently passed “Inflation Reduction Act” will offer relief.
Here are some key points that advisors should keep in mind when dispensing advice and recommendations on thematic ETFs.
Compared to the dotcom and great financial crisis recessions, our fiscal and monetary response over the last two years has been far more aggressive. But the true cost – in terms of inflation – presents a more threatening risk.
FINRA has released new data for margin debt, now available through August. The latest debt level is down 1.3% month-over-month.
One of the world’s largest derivatives exchanges is making a dangerous play for retail investors.
The spillover from the UK’s proposed tax cuts is washing into the US stock market.
Review the latest Weekly Headings by CIO Larry Adam.
Federal Reserve officials gave their clearest signal yet that they’re willing to tolerate a recession as the necessary trade-off for regaining control of inflation.
We are now in another downswing in the ongoing bear market.
Corporate profit margins finished 1999 at just a shade under 6% of U.S. GDP.
Warren Buffett famously described the stock market as “a device to transfer money from the impatient to the patient.”
Nations are being forced to go it alone in erecting defenses against the relentless strength of the almighty greenback, with no sign that governments are willing to act in concert.
The latest full set UIG for August is 4.51% while the prices-only measure is 6.02%. Current Headline CPI is now 8.26% and Core CPI is 6.32%.
Oil headed for the longest stretch of weekly losses this year as central banks around the world stepped up the fight against inflation at the cost of economic growth.
We've updated our periodic look at the Philly Fed ADS Index which includes Initial Jobless Claims through 9/17.
Today's release of the publicly available data from ECRI puts the WLI at 145.3, up from the previous week's figure. The WLIg is at -10.6, up from last week and the WLI YoY is at -4.88%, down slightly from last week.
Asset bubbles have been prevalent throughout history.
Balancing acts. As the Fed walks the line between curbing inflation and averting recession, anxious investors are seeking to balance the two risks. Amid the uncertainty, we believe stock selection matters more.
With interest rates on the rise, the once red-hot US housing market is finally showing signs of cooling.