Robust risk management is essential for fixed income investors. In his latest commentary, Marcus Moore explains why our sustainable investing team considers ESG factors as material business risks, similar to the traditional risks they also analyze.
Markets are unpredictable, which is one of many reasons it is difficult to consistently deliver alpha over long periods. In their latest commentary, our small cap growth team explains why their approach to managing the trade-off between risk and reward gives them the opportunity to outperform across market cycles.
Many investors have attempted to capitalize on the inverted yield curve by purchasing long-term Treasuries (assuming continued declines at the long end will cause their bonds to appreciate). In his latest commentary, Venk Reddy, CIO of our Sustainable Credit Strategies, explains why he feels this approach is materially riskier than investing in short duration fixed income.
The current debt ceiling debate in Congress is a great reminder that investors should always prepare for the unexpected and invest in companies that are durable enough to withstand a range of economic scenarios.
2022 was a difficult year for bond investors, but the combination of high inflation and tighter Fed policy should keep yields elevated, creating materially stronger fixed income returns in the new year.
In 2022, inflation and interest rates both rose substantially, creating the near-term potential for a recession.
2022 was a rough year for fixed income, but we anticipate better days ahead as the Fed will likely keep rates elevated in its ongoing battle against inflation.
Although inflation appears to have peaked, historical data suggests that prices are unlikely to reverse themselves, which could lead to an extended period of wage inflation.
Structurally tight labor markets are providing support for tighter monetary policy, but the Fed may be fighting an uphill battle.
Investors today probably feel a bit like the joker and the thief from Dylan’s classic, “All Along the Watchtower” – there’s too much confusion, they can’t get no relief. But our Core Equity team believes there is a way outta here – investing in dominant companies that pay growing dividends.
The Fed remains singularly focused on containing inflation but has made little headway so far.
2022 has hit investors with an unprecedented 1-2 punch of sharply negative returns in both the equity and fixed income markets, but our Strategic Income team feels the selloff has created attractive opportunities in high yield bonds.
Generating investment income is challenging, especially in the low-yield environment we have been living with for the past decade.
We have always believed that common sense is the key to successful investing.
In the face of what was the largest first half decline in the S&P 500 since 1970 and the worst ever start to a year for high yield bonds, short duration credit was not immune
Much has been made of the market’s relationship with the Fed in recent months.
In downward trending markets as we have seen for much of 2022, it is important to distinguish price declines which may present similarly.
Equity markets have struggled so far in 2022, but in our view the declines are largely due to “The Great Normalization” – the unwinding of the Covid economy that was defined by excess liquidity, unusually high demand, and extremely low interest rates.
Despite the Fed’s aggressive tightening policy, we think inflation still has a ways to run, though we remain cautiously optimistic about the economy.
With investors wondering whether we are finally through the worst of the selloff, our latest Strategic Income outlook tries to answer the question, “Are we there yet?”
Many of the participants in the short-term credit market use it as a place to deploy cash while waiting for higher risk opportunities.
For the better part of the last decade, interest rates have been near zero and leverage has driven asset prices higher.
Concerns about the Ukraine war, inflation, and the Fed were top of mind last quarter, but a lesser appreciated long-tern headwind is the de-globalization of the labor force, which could have profound effects on the economy.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has exacerbated inflation, which was already rising. The big questions now are how far will the Fed be willing to go to slow inflation, and how will the market react as rates increase?
The war in Ukraine has further complicated the investment backdrop, and fears of a recession are rising now that the U.S. yield curve has inverted. Given so much uncertainty, we are focusing on what we can control and maintaining a defensive posture
Bonds have started slowly in 2022 due to persistent inflation, a looming Fed tightening cycle, and the Russia/Ukraine conflict. We believe the Osterweis Strategic Income Fund is well-positioned to address these challenges, as its flexible mandate and defensive approach help to protect against rising rates and market volatility.
The Ukraine conflict has escalated rapidly, creating a massive humanitarian crisis and increasing volatility across financial markets. In this piece we review the major economic implications of the war and discuss the steps we are taking to manage the impact on portfolios.
In our latest outlook we examine the long-term implications of the pandemic, particularly changes to the labor market and the supply chain, and we discuss why we will be focusing on companies with pricing power in 2022.
Now that the Fed has officially stopped referring to inflation as “transitory,” the question is whether they can bring it under control without slowing the economy. In our view, they have the right tools – reducing the balance sheet and raising the fed funds rate – they just need to trust their data and keep a steady hand on the wheel.
As we reflect on 2021, we can’t help but feel it was quite a year. Looking ahead, we think many of the same headwinds and tailwinds are likely to persist in 2022, so we are trying to find the right balance between offense and defense.
Small cap growth stocks lagged for most of 2021 as the market simultaneously dealt with the pandemic, inflation, and tightening Fed policy. Given these challenges, we have been focusing on high quality companies trading at attractive valuations, and we have also been looking at non-technology businesses that are embracing digitization.
The fund is rated 5 stars in the Small Cap Growth category for the 5-Year, 3-Year, & Overall Periods. As of November 30, 2021, the fund was rated against 507 small cap growth funds in the 5-year category and 574 funds in the 3-year and overall categories, based on total returns.
Interest rates were mixed in November, as shorter maturity yields continued to rise while longer maturity yields fell further. The continued flattening of the yield curve reflects the market’s expectation that the Fed will be more aggressive in their tapering of official purchases and potentially raise the fed funds target rate more quickly and aggressively than previously thought.
Interest rates were mixed in October, as shorter maturity yields rose while longer maturity yields fell. The dramatic flattening in the yield curve reflects the market expectation that the Fed will begin tapering its bond purchase program imminently and has pulled forward expectations for rate hikes once the taper is completed.
Concerns about inflation and a looming Fed taper weighed on markets during the third quarter, but in our view the post-pandemic economy is well-positioned for extended cycle of capital investment, providing the impetus for broadening economic growth and job creation.
The investment grade market was relatively calm in the third quarter, but we are concerned about undercurrents lying beneath the surface. In particular, we feel the dual threats of persistent inflation and a less accommodative Fed have the potential to impact pricing over the near to medium term.
Despite multiple headwinds, including increasing inflation, rising rates, and tight labor markets, our view is that the U.S. economy is in good shape. Markets may experience higher volatility as the Fed begins to taper its bond buying program, but we expect that to be a short-term issue.
The Fed continues to assert that elevated inflation is largely due to “transitory factors,” but the Underlying Inflation Gauge, which is published by their own New York branch, tells a different story. To understand where inflation is heading, we advise investors to pay close attention to UIG data, even it if the Fed doesn’t.
U.S. Treasuries ended their 4-month streak of positive returns and falling yields in August. Intermediate maturity yields rose more than shorter and longer maturities, as the market began to see through the impact of the Delta variant and focus more on the Federal Reserve’s plan to scale back their bond buying program.
Longer term Treasury yields fell for a fourth consecutive month in July, as concerns around the resurgence of coronavirus weighed on forecasts for continued economic growth. Agency MBS underperformed investment grade corporates and Treasuries. While some inflation metrics set generational highs, and other economic data indicated a continued recovery, investors were focused on the potential impact of viral spread.
Equities continued to rally in the second quarter, but the market remains undecided about whether the recent uptick in inflation is more likely to be transitory or persistent.
Despite a strengthening economy in the second quarter, investors were highly focused on the Federal Reserve’s response to the recent spike in inflation data.
Our economic outlook remains constructive, though we recognize it’s still too soon to know whether the current bout of inflation is transitory. Given the potential for rate increases, particularly after the Fed’s comments in June, we continue to prefer non-investment grade bonds, as they have lower duration and higher yields.
Rising interest rates generated negative year-to-date returns for investment grade bonds in 2021, but the second half of the year looks more promising. We believe the combination of reduced supply and strong demand will create attractive opportunities, and we are constructive on corporate credit and asset backed securities (ABS).
Following the June Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, the Treasury curve flattened as the market reacted to a more aggressive hiking schedule than previously expected. Risk continued to perform well as investment grade (IG) corporates outperformed again and tightened through levels not seen since 2018. Economic data continues to improve showing the reopening remains on track, but investors remain focused on elevated levels of inflation.
Growth stocks have lagged cyclicals so far in 2021, but we remain steadfast in our belief that secular growth is the key to generating long-term returns. In this piece, we discuss how we find attractive opportunities in the small cap universe.
After idling for decades, electric vehicles (EVs) are finally ready to charge ahead. Changes in the regulatory landscape, decreasing costs, and a substantially wider range of buying options have transformed the industry and created a powerful secular growth trend. One little known electronics supplier, Aptiv PLC, is particularly well-positioned to take advantage of the opportunity.
Treasury yields fell again in May and credit spreads approached recent tights as the virus continued to recede, allowing the reopening of the economy to progress. Economic data was noisy this month, largely due to base effects, but confirms the ongoing trend of renewed growth and signs of inflation.
Inflation has been top of mind for investors throughout 2021, as a combination of supply chain disruptions and pent up demand have led to higher prices throughout the economy.
Although we remain constructive about the economic outlook, the recent increase in speculative activity gives us some pause. We continue to favor a cautious approach in the near-to-medium term.