Income-seeking investors are accustomed to casting wide nets after years of low yields.
Both the leading indicators of growth and liquidity continue to suggest growth will slow as 2023 progresses.
CIO Larry Adam outlines the positive events that are outweighing negative developments and looks at dynamics to focus on in the week ahead.
Help end investors understand that bailing out of bonds could mean locking in losses and missing a potential recovery.
A TIPS is risky in the short term and riskless in the long run, which is precisely the opposite of, and complementary to, a T-bill, which is riskless in the short term but, because of reinvestment rate volatility, risky in the long run.
My “five-step investment process” provides an ongoing systematic framework for making portfolio decisions, and further incorporating financial planning and tax considerations into overall portfolio construction.
Regulators' prompt response and the creation of a new lending facility should limit broader market fallout from recent bank failures, notes Chief Investment Officer Larry Adam.
Can we aggressively position assets today that have the potential for strong growth in the next 24 months when a tuition bill is due, without exposing those assets to market risk?
Gen Zers, according to a recent Magnify Money survey, are overly optimistic about being wealthy.
The long-term outlook for stocks remains questionable, as most of my leading indicators of risk assets suggest sub-par performance over the next year or so.
The planet’s billionaires are nearly $2 trillion poorer this year!
Alessio de Longis spent the last three months loading up on risk in his $1.1 billion Invesco Global Allocation Fund. Now, he’s winding down those positions and reversing course back to safety.
Here's an interesting set of charts that will especially resonate with those of us who follow economic and market cycles. Imagine that five years ago you invested $10,000 in the S&P 500. How much would it be worth today, with dividends reinvested but adjusted for inflation? The purchasing power of your investment has increased to $13,687 for an annualized real return of 6.29%.
Before making a hedge fund investment, investors and their advisors should consider four key questions.
Any of the variable spending strategies I analyzed will reduce sequence risk in retirement and allow for greater initial spending rates, potentially greater average spending amounts, and a generally more efficient spenddown of assets than the baseline constant inflation-adjusted spending rule.
Lufthansa’s blockbuster report is just the latest signal that commercial aviation, one of the hardest-hit industries during the pandemic, may be ready to make a landing again in investors’ portfolios.
Today’s inflationary market landscape is fraught with risks for investors. Despite these circumstances, Scott Welch and Kevin Flanagan outline how bond investors can generate yield.
Review the latest Weekly Headings by CIO Larry Adam.
Economic growth and inflation have surprised to the upside so far in 2023, not only thanks to the reopening of the Chinese economy, but also due to the resilience of the labour markets.
Valid until the market close on March 31, 2023.
The S&P 500 closed February with a monthly loss of 2.61%, after a gain of 6.18% in January. At this point, after close on the last day of the month, three of five S&P 500 strategies are signaling "cash" — iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEF), Vanguard Real Estate ETF (VNQ), and Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund (DBC) — up from from last month's single "cash" signal.
This commentary reflects on the silver linings of the higher interest rate environment as well as explores the possible winners and losers under this new regime.
Being flexible with spending matters. My analysis shows that variable spending strategies – including floor-and-ceiling, guardrail, actuarial and other methods – can dramatically increase sustainable retirement spending.
Research from Vanguard suggests that investing in commodities is the most powerful way to hedge against unexpected inflation.
I have no idea how AI will impact the advisory profession. However, I’m confident it will fundamentally change almost every aspect of what you do and how you do it.
With the consumer price index increasing during the last few years at a rate not seen for nearly 40 years, the investing challenge for the coming year is finding ways to generate real returns during exceptionally high inflation.
A malinvestment bubble has persisted for years, sucking in a considerable amount of capital from many sources.
The bond market finally got the Federal Reserve’s message on rates, while stock investors continue to ignore it, for the most part.
Many investors have attempted to capitalize on the inverted yield curve by purchasing long-term Treasuries (assuming continued declines at the long end will cause their bonds to appreciate). In his latest commentary, Venk Reddy, CIO of our Sustainable Credit Strategies, explains why he feels this approach is materially riskier than investing in short duration fixed income.
Federal Reserve officials like to call their decisions “data dependent.” Business leaders say it a little differently, often “data driven.” The point, in both cases, is something like: “We consider relevant data when making important decisions.”
Financial security means “feeling comfortable” with finances for many Americans—but 51% aren’t feeling secure. Find out what’s driving this discomfort and how you can help.
Passive equity investing has retained its dominance and outflows from active portfolios have continued amid the market and macro shocks of the past year.
While equity markets are on a relentless march higher amid optimism around stronger economic growth and cooling inflation, most investors aren’t convinced the gains will last, according to Bank of America Corp.’s latest global fund manager survey.
For all the fretting about the political standoff over the US debt ceiling, one fund manager sees the deadlock providing a boost to the stock market.
Explore why we think value has been restored to fixed income after more than a decade and why now is a good time to assess allocations.
After a bruising 2022 for equities globally, Value stocks in the U.S. have become attractive in an absolute sense and worthy of inclusion in one’s portfolio.
Despite the current rally in risk assets that includes US equities, we believe caution remains warranted.
The triumphant comeback of quant-investing strategies on Wall Street is suddenly on shaky ground as virtually all of 2022’s hottest market trends get derailed in the new year.
Investors should be aware of potential real-time market exposure risks when implementing large changes to their portfolios.
Cash flows into US sustainable funds plummeted last year as the broader market took a beating and anti-ESG crusaders targeted money managers including BlackRock Inc. for “woke capitalism.”
The recent embrace of so-called liquid alternatives by ordinary Americans seeking to fund their retirement is deeply troubling.
From a contrarian investing view, everyone remains bearish despite a market that corrected all of last year.
At the conclusion of its inaugural policy meeting of 2023 today, the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) delivered a smaller, quarter-point rate hike, as widely expected by markets.
2022 was a painful year in financial markets with almost all traditional assets delivering significant losses.
With wage growth still strong and unemployment low, the labour market is still historically tight. For now.
Annie Duke’s latest and best of her books, Quit, is on making decisions under uncertainty.
Over the past couple of decades, I’ve told clients many very important things. Most of them are timeless, which is why I find myself saying the same things repeatedly. Here are the top 10, and I’ve saved my most important for last.
In stock investing there’s a management style called “growth at a reasonable price” or GARP. It seeks to achieve steadier results by avoiding both expensive growth stocks and beaten-down value stocks.
The current debt ceiling debate in Congress is a great reminder that investors should always prepare for the unexpected and invest in companies that are durable enough to withstand a range of economic scenarios.
What happens when you ask the hottest AI tool in the world to design an ETF that can beat the US equity market? It tells you the same thing every frustrated stock manager does.
U.S. equities finished mixed in a lackluster trading session, as Q4 earnings season shifted into a higher gear today.
The death of the cheap-money era is redrawing Corporate America’s earnings map - upending a decade of Wall Street wisdom over which stocks are the bargain buys or the high fliers of tomorrow.
Making optimistic predictions either makes you look foolish if bad things happen or be forgotten if nothing bad happens.
Investors may be able to lock in higher yield levels notes Doug Drabik, Managing Director, Fixed Income Research and Nick Goetze, Managing Director, Fixed Income Solutions.
Advice boosts workers’ confidence in choosing investments—from 35% to 65%. Learn how our industry-leading asset allocation expertise can help participants make investment choices with more confidence and help employers reach their plan goals.
Macro hedge funds, which look at economic trends and take advantage of dislocations across asset classes, had a banner year in 2022.
BlackRock Inc., the world’s largest asset manager, suggests investors should abandon portfolios made up of 60% stocks and 40% bonds, a mix that has been a standard for six decades.
I learned a lot in 2022. Here were my biggest epiphanies.
It's easy to take the wrong signal from recent market strength.
Let me share a story of an RIA who will be forced to mount a legal defense because of a lawsuit that is likely to be filed by two of his retired clients.
Morningstar’s latest research showed higher safe spending rates across all asset allocations over all time horizons. I don’t agree with those results.
Markets provided investors with a dozen lessons in 2022 (and a bonus one in the postscript).
This article explores how the addition of specific liquid alternative strategies produces an “All-Terrain” portfolio with the potential for improved long-term performance across a wider range of market environments.
Current federal monetary policy, fixed income returns and economic landscape appear to closely parallel the bond bear markets in the 1990s.
Throughout this year, Wealthspire Advisors’ Investment Team has spent significant time discussing inflation and the Federal Reserve and felt it was important to pivot towards the story in financial markets for 2022, which begins and ends with fixed income.
Market volatility and the Federal Reserve's efforts to reduce inflation will continue to garner attention.
Money managers for the ultra-wealthy are eschewing traditional private equity funds and betting directly on upstart companies.
The bond market is much cheaper than the stock market, according to Jeffrey Gundlach. Investors should abandon the traditional 60/40 stock/bond allocation in favor of a 40/60 split.
At KCR, we believe in the Quantamental Investment approach–a strategy that leverages the most useful aspects of both quantitative investing and fundamental investing.
Deep value offers a compelling opportunity within U.S. equities.
Tens of thousands of tech sector job cuts may not be enough to reverse the collapse in share prices, given the looming economic downturn could slash companies’ revenues far more than the cost savings they make via layoffs.
Probability-based retirement income strategies are highly sensitive to the capital market assumptions used in Monte Carlo analysis. Seemingly small changes in those assumptions can mean the difference between projecting a comfortable lifestyle and financial ruin.
One of the biggest breakdowns has been in the relationship between stocks and bonds. Stock prices and bond prices are usually not correlated, meaning bonds can serve as the cornerstone of a hedge when stock prices waver and drop.
Chinese equities have been on a tear in the first week of 2023, and investors are gearing up for more gains with consumer-related stocks expected to spearhead the surge.
Chief Economist Eugenio Alemán and Economist Giampiero Fuentes examine the factors which will contribute to the U.S. economy's path forward in 2023.
One of the biggest hits in the $6.6 trillion exchange-traded fund industry last year has a worthy opponent in 2023: the bond market.
Public and private real estate investments present a compelling opportunity in the current environment of high inflation and rising interest rates, according to Daniel Scher and Blair Schmicker from Franklin Equity Group.
Over the long-term, the fundamentals of the dollar suggest a downward bias is likely.
Relative to the accumulation phase, strategies that mitigate the unique risks faced by retirees in decumulation are less understood and researched. By identifying and illustrating those risks, planners can better prepare clients for retirement.
Quarterly commentary giving an overview of the markets and the importance of having and implementing a strategy when investing in the markets.
George Milling-Stanley of State Street Global Advisors provides his outlook for gold in 2023, as well as the specific headwinds and tailwinds he expect to drive price activity moving forward.
Much ink has been spilled over the death of the 60/40 portfolio.
The Aiguille du Midi, neighboring popular Mont Blanc in the French Alps, is famous for having the highest vertical ascent cable car in the world, a vertigo-inducing ride that is equal parts scary and awe-inspiring.
Bear markets end with widespread capitulation while a chorus of the stock trader’s prayer (God, if you get me out of this mess, I swear I will never buy another stock) spreads through out the land.
Managing your portfolio has more to do with gardening than you might imagine.
The Fed’s repeated manipulation of the price of capital has weakened productivity growth and reduced economic activity. Ultimately it is the citizens that pay the price.
As of Friday, December 16, the S&P 500 Index is down -19.7% from the most speculative level of valuations in U.S. history – exceeding even the 1929 and 2000 extremes, based on the valuation measures we find best-correlated with actual subsequent market returns in cycles across history.
As the world economy prepares for a true transition to decarbonization, interest in renewable energy has re-emerged as an important topic for investors. This interview features Rene Reyna, who is head of thematic and specialty product strategy for the ETFs and Indexed Strategies teams at Invesco.
Asset Allocation
Taming Biases in High-Dividend Equity Strategies
Income-seeking investors are accustomed to casting wide nets after years of low yields.
The Growth Slowdown Is Not Over Yet
Both the leading indicators of growth and liquidity continue to suggest growth will slow as 2023 progresses.
Incremental Progress Emerging in the Banking Sector Fallout
CIO Larry Adam outlines the positive events that are outweighing negative developments and looks at dynamics to focus on in the week ahead.
Keeping Your Bond Perspective: Declines, Rallies and the Role of Bonds
Help end investors understand that bailing out of bonds could mean locking in losses and missing a potential recovery.
Riskless at Age 104
A TIPS is risky in the short term and riskless in the long run, which is precisely the opposite of, and complementary to, a T-bill, which is riskless in the short term but, because of reinvestment rate volatility, risky in the long run.
The Professor's Portfolio
My “five-step investment process” provides an ongoing systematic framework for making portfolio decisions, and further incorporating financial planning and tax considerations into overall portfolio construction.
Recent Bank Failures a Potential Game-Changer for The Fed
Regulators' prompt response and the creation of a new lending facility should limit broader market fallout from recent bank failures, notes Chief Investment Officer Larry Adam.
An Annuity Can Fund Looming College Tuition
Can we aggressively position assets today that have the potential for strong growth in the next 24 months when a tuition bill is due, without exposing those assets to market risk?
Gen Zers Are Overly Optimistic About Being Wealthy
Gen Zers, according to a recent Magnify Money survey, are overly optimistic about being wealthy.
Is Now The Time To Buy Stocks?
The long-term outlook for stocks remains questionable, as most of my leading indicators of risk assets suggest sub-par performance over the next year or so.
Newsletter Volume 16, No. 1 February 2023
The planet’s billionaires are nearly $2 trillion poorer this year!
How a Billion-Dollar Invesco Fund Did a U-Turn After Hot Inflation Data
Alessio de Longis spent the last three months loading up on risk in his $1.1 billion Invesco Global Allocation Fund. Now, he’s winding down those positions and reversing course back to safety.
Is Now The Time To Buy Stocks?
The long-term outlook for stocks remains questionable, as most of my leading indicators of risk assets suggest sub-par performance over the next year or so.
The Latest Look at the Total Return Roller Coaster
Here's an interesting set of charts that will especially resonate with those of us who follow economic and market cycles. Imagine that five years ago you invested $10,000 in the S&P 500. How much would it be worth today, with dividends reinvested but adjusted for inflation? The purchasing power of your investment has increased to $13,687 for an annualized real return of 6.29%.
Four Key Questions to Ask Before Making a Hedge Fund Investment
Before making a hedge fund investment, investors and their advisors should consider four key questions.
A Comparison of Variable Spending Strategies
Any of the variable spending strategies I analyzed will reduce sequence risk in retirement and allow for greater initial spending rates, potentially greater average spending amounts, and a generally more efficient spenddown of assets than the baseline constant inflation-adjusted spending rule.
Airline Stocks Are Soaring Over The Negative Headlines, Lifted By Positive Earnings
Lufthansa’s blockbuster report is just the latest signal that commercial aviation, one of the hardest-hit industries during the pandemic, may be ready to make a landing again in investors’ portfolios.
What’s Yield Got to Do, Got to Do with It?
Today’s inflationary market landscape is fraught with risks for investors. Despite these circumstances, Scott Welch and Kevin Flanagan outline how bond investors can generate yield.
Bonds Haven’t Been This Attractive Since 2008
Review the latest Weekly Headings by CIO Larry Adam.
Navigating A Turbulent Environment: EM IG To The Rescue
Economic growth and inflation have surprised to the upside so far in 2023, not only thanks to the reopening of the Chinese economy, but also due to the resilience of the labour markets.
Moving Averages: S&P Finishes a Volatile February Down 2.61%
Valid until the market close on March 31, 2023.
The S&P 500 closed February with a monthly loss of 2.61%, after a gain of 6.18% in January. At this point, after close on the last day of the month, three of five S&P 500 strategies are signaling "cash" — iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEF), Vanguard Real Estate ETF (VNQ), and Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund (DBC) — up from from last month's single "cash" signal.
How Russia’s War Has Shifted the Geopolitical Landscape
Review the latest Weekly Headings by CIO Larry Adam.
Silver Linings - Our February 2023 market Commentary
This commentary reflects on the silver linings of the higher interest rate environment as well as explores the possible winners and losers under this new regime.
A Framework for Assessing Variable Spending Strategies
Being flexible with spending matters. My analysis shows that variable spending strategies – including floor-and-ceiling, guardrail, actuarial and other methods – can dramatically increase sustainable retirement spending.
Vanguard’s Research on Commodities as an Inflation Hedge
Research from Vanguard suggests that investing in commodities is the most powerful way to hedge against unexpected inflation.
How AI is Making Advisors More Efficient and Effective
I have no idea how AI will impact the advisory profession. However, I’m confident it will fundamentally change almost every aspect of what you do and how you do it.
The Top Six Investments for Inflation in 2023
With the consumer price index increasing during the last few years at a rate not seen for nearly 40 years, the investing challenge for the coming year is finding ways to generate real returns during exceptionally high inflation.
A Sustained Reopening: 1Q 2022 Outlook
A malinvestment bubble has persisted for years, sucking in a considerable amount of capital from many sources.
Wall Street Is Baffled by the Stock Market
The bond market finally got the Federal Reserve’s message on rates, while stock investors continue to ignore it, for the most part.
Unexpected Risks and Opportunities from the Inverted Yield Curve
Many investors have attempted to capitalize on the inverted yield curve by purchasing long-term Treasuries (assuming continued declines at the long end will cause their bonds to appreciate). In his latest commentary, Venk Reddy, CIO of our Sustainable Credit Strategies, explains why he feels this approach is materially riskier than investing in short duration fixed income.
Adjustments Matter
Federal Reserve officials like to call their decisions “data dependent.” Business leaders say it a little differently, often “data driven.” The point, in both cases, is something like: “We consider relevant data when making important decisions.”
Are your clients feeling financially secure?
Financial security means “feeling comfortable” with finances for many Americans—but 51% aren’t feeling secure. Find out what’s driving this discomfort and how you can help.
Activating Equity Portfolios for Higher Rates and Inflation
Passive equity investing has retained its dominance and outflows from active portfolios have continued amid the market and macro shocks of the past year.
BofA Survey Shows Investors Expect Stock Rally to Fizzle Out
While equity markets are on a relentless march higher amid optimism around stronger economic growth and cooling inflation, most investors aren’t convinced the gains will last, according to Bank of America Corp.’s latest global fund manager survey.
Debt Ceiling Fight May Boost US Stocks, Says Pictet Fund Manager
For all the fretting about the political standoff over the US debt ceiling, one fund manager sees the deadlock providing a boost to the stock market.
5 Reasons to Consider Fixed Income Now
Explore why we think value has been restored to fixed income after more than a decade and why now is a good time to assess allocations.
What is Value? Methodology Matters
After a bruising 2022 for equities globally, Value stocks in the U.S. have become attractive in an absolute sense and worthy of inclusion in one’s portfolio.
Grey Owl Capital's Q4 Letter
Despite the current rally in risk assets that includes US equities, we believe caution remains warranted.
Quant Funds Shed Billions as Wall Street's Hottest Trends Falter
The triumphant comeback of quant-investing strategies on Wall Street is suddenly on shaky ground as virtually all of 2022’s hottest market trends get derailed in the new year.
Q1 2023 Update: Real-Time Risk Exposure Report
Investors should be aware of potential real-time market exposure risks when implementing large changes to their portfolios.
BlackRock US ESG Flows Fall on Tech Rout, Anti-Green Backlash
Cash flows into US sustainable funds plummeted last year as the broader market took a beating and anti-ESG crusaders targeted money managers including BlackRock Inc. for “woke capitalism.”
Alternatives for the Masses?
The recent embrace of so-called liquid alternatives by ordinary Americans seeking to fund their retirement is deeply troubling.
Contrarian Trade. Everyone Remains Bearish
From a contrarian investing view, everyone remains bearish despite a market that corrected all of last year.
February Fed Meeting: Tough Talk for a Smaller Hike
At the conclusion of its inaugural policy meeting of 2023 today, the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) delivered a smaller, quarter-point rate hike, as widely expected by markets.
Earnings Season Takes Center Stage
Review the latest Weekly Headings by CIO Larry Adam.
4Q 2022 GMO Quarterly Letter
2022 was a painful year in financial markets with almost all traditional assets delivering significant losses.
The Labor Market Is Still Historically Tight
With wage growth still strong and unemployment low, the labour market is still historically tight. For now.
How the Greatest Female Poker Player Reduces Risk
Annie Duke’s latest and best of her books, Quit, is on making decisions under uncertainty.
The 10 Most Important Things I Tell Clients
Over the past couple of decades, I’ve told clients many very important things. Most of them are timeless, which is why I find myself saying the same things repeatedly. Here are the top 10, and I’ve saved my most important for last.
Growth Pains
In stock investing there’s a management style called “growth at a reasonable price” or GARP. It seeks to achieve steadier results by avoiding both expensive growth stocks and beaten-down value stocks.
Elephant in the Room
The current debt ceiling debate in Congress is a great reminder that investors should always prepare for the unexpected and invest in companies that are durable enough to withstand a range of economic scenarios.
We Asked ChatGPT to Make a Market-Beating ETF. Here’s What Happened
What happens when you ask the hottest AI tool in the world to design an ETF that can beat the US equity market? It tells you the same thing every frustrated stock manager does.
Stocks Lack Direction in Choppy Trading
U.S. equities finished mixed in a lackluster trading session, as Q4 earnings season shifted into a higher gear today.
Amazon Is a Value Stock in Topsy-Turvy New World of Investing
The death of the cheap-money era is redrawing Corporate America’s earnings map - upending a decade of Wall Street wisdom over which stocks are the bargain buys or the high fliers of tomorrow.
Wall Street Quants Shouldn't Confuse Luck With Skill
Making optimistic predictions either makes you look foolish if bad things happen or be forgotten if nothing bad happens.
New Year Opens Window of Opportunity for Bond Investors
Investors may be able to lock in higher yield levels notes Doug Drabik, Managing Director, Fixed Income Research and Nick Goetze, Managing Director, Fixed Income Solutions.
Boost workers' investment confidence and help meet retirement plan goals
Advice boosts workers’ confidence in choosing investments—from 35% to 65%. Learn how our industry-leading asset allocation expertise can help participants make investment choices with more confidence and help employers reach their plan goals.
Macro Hedge Funds Had a Banner Year. Can They Stage an Encore?
Macro hedge funds, which look at economic trends and take advantage of dislocations across asset classes, had a banner year in 2022.
Investors Risk Making a Classic Portfolio Mistake
BlackRock Inc., the world’s largest asset manager, suggests investors should abandon portfolios made up of 60% stocks and 40% bonds, a mix that has been a standard for six decades.
My Biggest Epiphanies in 2022
I learned a lot in 2022. Here were my biggest epiphanies.
Areté Market Review Q422: Cash is King-ish
It's easy to take the wrong signal from recent market strength.
Will RIAs be Liable for Failed Retirement Income Planning?
Let me share a story of an RIA who will be forced to mount a legal defense because of a lawsuit that is likely to be filed by two of his retired clients.
Challenging Morningstar’s Safe Withdrawal Rates
Morningstar’s latest research showed higher safe spending rates across all asset allocations over all time horizons. I don’t agree with those results.
Lessons from the Markets in 2022
Markets provided investors with a dozen lessons in 2022 (and a bonus one in the postscript).
From All-Weather to All-Terrain Investing for the Stormy Decade Ahead
This article explores how the addition of specific liquid alternative strategies produces an “All-Terrain” portfolio with the potential for improved long-term performance across a wider range of market environments.
2023 Municipal Bond Playbook: A Page from the 1990s
Current federal monetary policy, fixed income returns and economic landscape appear to closely parallel the bond bear markets in the 1990s.
The Year in Review: Wealthspire Advisors 2022 Q4 Review
Throughout this year, Wealthspire Advisors’ Investment Team has spent significant time discussing inflation and the Federal Reserve and felt it was important to pivot towards the story in financial markets for 2022, which begins and ends with fixed income.
Equities Are Searching for Clarity
Market volatility and the Federal Reserve's efforts to reduce inflation will continue to garner attention.
Family Offices Bypass Private Equity Funds to Make Bets Directly
Money managers for the ultra-wealthy are eschewing traditional private equity funds and betting directly on upstart companies.
Gundlach: Bonds are Much Cheaper than Stocks
The bond market is much cheaper than the stock market, according to Jeffrey Gundlach. Investors should abandon the traditional 60/40 stock/bond allocation in favor of a 40/60 split.
Quantamental Investing: A Brief Primer on KCR’s Toolkits
At KCR, we believe in the Quantamental Investment approach–a strategy that leverages the most useful aspects of both quantitative investing and fundamental investing.
Memo To The Investment Committee: A Hidden Gem
Deep value offers a compelling opportunity within U.S. equities.
Amazon, Salesforce Job Cuts Are Warning Signs for Stock Prices
Tens of thousands of tech sector job cuts may not be enough to reverse the collapse in share prices, given the looming economic downturn could slash companies’ revenues far more than the cost savings they make via layoffs.
The Dangers of Monte Carlo Simulations
Probability-based retirement income strategies are highly sensitive to the capital market assumptions used in Monte Carlo analysis. Seemingly small changes in those assumptions can mean the difference between projecting a comfortable lifestyle and financial ruin.
When Old Rules Break Down, Consider a New Investing Approach
One of the biggest breakdowns has been in the relationship between stocks and bonds. Stock prices and bond prices are usually not correlated, meaning bonds can serve as the cornerstone of a hedge when stock prices waver and drop.
China Stock Traders Bet Consumption Will Supercharge 2023 Rally
Chinese equities have been on a tear in the first week of 2023, and investors are gearing up for more gains with consumer-related stocks expected to spearhead the surge.
Federal Reserve Continues Quest to Slow U.S. Economy
Chief Economist Eugenio Alemán and Economist Giampiero Fuentes examine the factors which will contribute to the U.S. economy's path forward in 2023.
JPMorgan’s Smash-Hit ‘Income’ ETF Seen Battling Off Bond Market
One of the biggest hits in the $6.6 trillion exchange-traded fund industry last year has a worthy opponent in 2023: the bond market.
Alternative Investments: The Case for Real Estate
Public and private real estate investments present a compelling opportunity in the current environment of high inflation and rising interest rates, according to Daniel Scher and Blair Schmicker from Franklin Equity Group.
The Dollar Will Weaken, But Not Yet
Over the long-term, the fundamentals of the dollar suggest a downward bias is likely.
The Four Unique Risks in Decumulation
Relative to the accumulation phase, strategies that mitigate the unique risks faced by retirees in decumulation are less understood and researched. By identifying and illustrating those risks, planners can better prepare clients for retirement.
Quarterly Commentary
Quarterly commentary giving an overview of the markets and the importance of having and implementing a strategy when investing in the markets.
Gold 2023 Outlook: Recession and Rates to Remain in Focus
George Milling-Stanley of State Street Global Advisors provides his outlook for gold in 2023, as well as the specific headwinds and tailwinds he expect to drive price activity moving forward.
60/40 Portfolio Set to Outperform Over the Next Decade
Much ink has been spilled over the death of the 60/40 portfolio.
Zooming in on Fixed Income as We Head into 2023
The Aiguille du Midi, neighboring popular Mont Blanc in the French Alps, is famous for having the highest vertical ascent cable car in the world, a vertigo-inducing ride that is equal parts scary and awe-inspiring.
The 70% Solution
Bear markets end with widespread capitulation while a chorus of the stock trader’s prayer (God, if you get me out of this mess, I swear I will never buy another stock) spreads through out the land.
Why Gardening Can Help You Manage Your Portfolio Better
Managing your portfolio has more to do with gardening than you might imagine.
The Federal Reserve is Killing Capitalism
The Fed’s repeated manipulation of the price of capital has weakened productivity growth and reduced economic activity. Ultimately it is the citizens that pay the price.
They’ve Ruled Out Tail Risk
As of Friday, December 16, the S&P 500 Index is down -19.7% from the most speculative level of valuations in U.S. history – exceeding even the 1929 and 2000 extremes, based on the valuation measures we find best-correlated with actual subsequent market returns in cycles across history.
The Outlook for Clean Energy Investing
As the world economy prepares for a true transition to decarbonization, interest in renewable energy has re-emerged as an important topic for investors. This interview features Rene Reyna, who is head of thematic and specialty product strategy for the ETFs and Indexed Strategies teams at Invesco.