Join Delaware Funds by Macquarie’s Co-Head of US Multisector Fixed Income, Daniela Mardarovici, for an interactive discussion that will help answer some of the biggest questions on investors’ minds.
Remember when banks were small? Those old enough to have a bank account in the 1970s should. Back then, most people did their banking with a locally owned institution, often the First National Bank of (Your Town).
Gold appears to be well-positioned for a strong pump that could carry it to new all-time high prices in 2023—and beyond. As you know, I’ve been following and writing about the precious metal market for a very long time, and I see a number of unique catalysts at the moment that could contribute to higher gold prices.
In many ways, the process of filling out a bracket is like investing. It requires balancing risk and reward, while maintaining discipline.
Worries about the health of the overall banking system have led to a drawdown in deposits, with investors yanking nearly $100 billion in deposits from U.S. banks during the week that ended March 15. What’s more, there are fears that the stresses in the banking sector could be the start of the next financial crisis.
Bitcoin’s surprising fast exit from its “crypto winter” has once again put the notoriously volatile digital currency atop the leader-board in the first quarter for being the best-performing asset class by a wide margin.
Wall Street’s model-portfolio boom appears to have flashed its invisible power for the second time in this week after a once-sleepy Charles Schwab Corp. bond exchange-traded fund received another monster inflow.
Stocks built on overnight gains and Treasury yields inched lower following today's relatively benign February PCE inflation data.
The yield on the 10-year note ended March 31, 2023 at 3.48%, the two-year note ended at 4.06%, and the 30-year at 3.67%.
Early signs of economic unraveling are appearing. The federal corporation that insures bank deposits is woefully underfunded. The Fed is under pressure to pivot away from its inflation fight.
Valid until the market close on April 30, 2023.
The S&P 500 closed March with a monthly gain of 3.51%, after a loss of 2.61% in February. At this point, after close on the last day of the month, two of five Ivy portfolio ETFs — Vanguard Real Estate ETF (VNQ) and Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund (DBC) — are signaling "cash," a decrease from last month's final triple "cash" signal.
Stock investors wishing for the Federal Reserve to pivot should rethink their logic and review the charts below.
Everyone insisting America isn't up to managing the world’s No. 1 economy after the Covid-19 pandemic caused the highest joblessness since the Great Depression and biggest cost-of-living increase in 40 years should ask...
No investment is risk-free, but the closest thing is probably short-term loans to the US government, also known as Treasury bills. That’s because the US government has vast resources to pay back its loans, and investors get their money back quickly.
The benchmark S&P 500 Index is wrapping up its second straight quarterly gain, rising 5.50% through Thursday and adding to the 7.08% surge in the final three months of 2022.
Recession indicators are ringing loudly.
It’s been—to put it mildly—an interesting time in the US Treasury market.
The investment landscape is pockmarked by intractable statistics that continue to impose strategic and psychological barriers to the short term potential of portfolio alpha.
The BEA's Personal Income and Outlays report for February was published on this morning by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The latest headline PCE price index was up 0.3% month-over-month (MoM) and is up 5.0% year-over-year (YoY). Core PCE dropped to 4.6% YoY, still well above the Fed's 2% target rate, and is up 0.3% MoM. All readings were below their respective Investing.com forecasts.
Fixed income spreads have widened across sectors over the past few months.
What are the implications of the ongoing volatility in the banking sector, and what does it mean for markets in Europe and globally?
“QE” or “Quantitative Easing” has been the bull’s “siren song” of the last decade, but will “Not QE” be the same?
When we talk about shadow banking, we think of China, one of the world’s most indebted nations. Lending by companies that do not own a banking license has reached 50 trillion yuan ($7.3 trillion), or about 42% of gross domestic product, according to Moody’s Investors Service.
In the face of high and persistent inflation, recession risks, and now a looming insolvency crisis in the financial sector, central banks like the US Federal Reserve are facing a trilemma.
We’ve been watching slumps ripple through various parts of the economy over the past 18 months: technology startups and stocks, regional banks and growing concern about commercial real estate. Yet we’re still waiting for the wider labor market to feel the downturn.
The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for growth, inflation, employment, and interest rates.
Charitable planning is an important topic to discuss with your clients, especially if they’re facing extraordinary taxable events this year. You can add value to your clients by sharing these tax-smart giving strategies for 2023.
A group of conservative Republicans representatives known as the House Freedom Caucus came out last week against any proposal that would lift the cap on deposit insurance, currently set at $250,000. Members of US Congress on both sides of the aisle are understandably cautious about taking such a dramatic step in the middle of an unfolding crisis.
The dollar has lost some of its luster over the winter. The twin supports of its status as the preferred haven during the pandemic and being backed by the world’s strongest economy are fading.
Congress is asking the Federal Reserve and other financial regulators what went wrong at Silicon Valley Bank and why they didn’t see it coming. In due course, they’ll admit some mistakes, draw some lessons and tweak some rules.
I’ve received more emails and calls from clients on the failure of SVB Bank than I did on the stock market crash in April of 2020. That tells me there is wide concern today about the stability of the economy and financial markets.
The Senate Banking Committee held a hearing to investigate the collapse of Signature Bank (SBNY) and Silicon Valley Bank (SIVB/SIVBQ) that brought to discussion possible changes for the entire banking system.
From the perspective of the U.S. stock market, 2022 was a miserable year (with the S&P 500 declining 19.4%), but until recently, 2023 was shaping up to be a stronger year.
The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) released the latest monthly data for its pending home sales index. According to the NAR, "Pending home sales grew in February for the third consecutive month."
The failures of Silvergate Bank, Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, and the current struggles of First Republic and Pacific West Bank have seen bank deposits flee to the perceived safety of large banks.
With this morning's release of the January S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index, we learned that seasonally adjusted home prices for the benchmark 20-city index saw a 0.4% decrease month-over-month (MoM), higher than the Investing.com forecast of -0.5%, and a 2.6% increase year-over-year (YoY). After adjusting for inflation, the MoM was reduced to -1.1% and the YoY was reduced to -4.8%.
In hindsight, it was obvious it wouldn’t last. Low interest rates — the result of shifts in the global economy, economic stability, low inflation and monetary policy — couldn’t stay at zero forever.
A year into its fight against inflation, the Federal Reserve could — just maybe — be done raising its policy rate. History shows that monetary policy pauses mark great buying opportunities for US stocks, but there are several key caveats to bear in mind this time.
For millions of borrowers, student loan forgiveness will mean the difference between significant relief and ongoing payments. If you’re among them, the question is… what next?
The sudden loss of confidence by depositors in some US banks is causing many to focus on the scope for financial contagion and the needed policy responses. What should not be overlooked is the other, and slower, contagion channel in play — that involving enablers of economic growth...
Predicting spot exchanges is tricky, but there are still ways of adding value in currency markets, including through a disciplined approach we call currency factor investing.
The demise of a major bank illustrates the global tensions in the financial sector.
Doug Drabik discusses fixed income market conditions and offers insight for bond investors.
Beyond the near-term turmoil, there may need to be a re-evaluation of the regional banking model in the United States, according to a recent panel hosted by Stephen Dover, Head of Franklin Templeton Institute.
The Conference Board released its Consumer Confidence Index ® this morning, with the headline number coming in at 104.2, an increase of 0.8 from the upwardly revised final reading of 103.4 in February. This month's reading is better than the Investing.com forecast of 101.0.
The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) has released its U.S. house price index (HPI) for January. U.S. house prices increased by 0.2% from the previous month. Year-over-year the index is up 5.3% on a non-seasonally adjusted nominal basis. After adjusting for inflation and seasonality, the real index is down 0.2% in January and down 0.3% year-over-year (seasonally adjusted).
A simple annuity can effectively replace bond holdings in a retirement plan that are earmarked to meet the lifetime spending goal. The question is why should a retiree hold any bonds in the portion of their asset base designed to cover ongoing retirement spending goals?
The Federal Reserve raised short-term interest rates by another quarter point on Wednesday.
Many have questioned the importance of the recent bank failures.
The economic signals and a host of geopolitical risks confronting investors suggest that 2023 could be as challenging as 20022 for both stocks and bonds.
Should investors build their own portfolios of bonds, or buy shares of bond funds? Is there an economic difference or just one of appearance? Are directly held bonds safer because they mature, and you get your money back? How should one decide?
Annie Duke, once one of the best female poker players in the world, helped me understand why people work longer than they need to. This got me thinking about the decumulation problem more broadly and planning to live to age 100.
For all of you following the banking crises in the US and Europe, and asking why this is all happening again, I have bad news: Regardless of what laws are passed, or which regulations are issued, banking crises will recur — and not infrequently.
The pitch for an actively managed bond exchange-traded fund can be compelling, especially when there’s market turmoil and uncertainty
The fallout from SVB will make the Fed's job more difficult.
Review the latest Weekly Headings by CIO Larry Adam.
Stock and bond markets were shaken by the recent banking crisis in the US and Europe.
Realty Income, A.K.A. the Monthly Dividend Company, has rarely been attractively valued since the spring of 2010. However, rising interest rates have brought the price down to fair value.
Slower credit growth may curtail broader U.S. economic growth, taking pressure off the Federal Reserve.
Recently I saw someone share a clip from their weather app. It said, “Rain expected at 3 pm,” right above a little graphic showing a 30% chance of rain at 3 pm. What’s wrong with that picture?
The U.S. dollar remains the world’s top reserve currency for now, though its share of global central banks’ official holdings has slipped in the past 20 years. By contrast, the yuan’s share of official holdings has more than doubled since 2016.
As interest rates show signs of peaking, gold prices are nearing new all-time highs.
China’s economy is in the early stages of a gradual, consumer-led recovery. In this issue of Sinology, Andy Rothman outlines why China’s opportunities outweigh risks.
Following recent efforts by central banks and regulators to alleviate the banking crisis, Franklin Templeton Institute’s Stephen Dover and Lukasz Kalwak discuss their thoughts on the implications and outlook for the banking industries in the United States and Europe.
Chief Economist Eugenio J. Alemán discusses current economic conditions.
The GMO Focused Equity team has evaluated banks in the context of our Quality Strategy for 20 years, using both quantitative and fundamental analysis to invest in high-quality banks with healthy financials and in our opinion responsible management practices.
Yields on 10-Year Japanese Government Bonds have fallen by about a third over the past two weeks, as shown in the chart below.
To help understand the current market volatility arising from the collapse of banks in the United States and Europe, Head of Franklin Templeton Institute Stephen Dover provides his answers to three crucial questions.
Stocks fell and volatility rose this morning as banking sector worries persist.
Gold prices surged to test the $2,000/oz level early this week before retreating ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision.
Yesterday, the Fed completed its regular meeting and announced that it would increase interest rates by 25 bps, or a quarter percentage point.
Lower interest rates and more liquidity are the keys to boosting confidence in the financial sector, but they impede the Fed's ability to fight inflation.
The latest Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey composite index came in at 0, unchanged from last month's figure. The future outlook came in at 3, up 2 from last month.
Financial markets seem to have returned to trying to time a dovish Federal Reserve turn, but Franklin Templeton Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai says with a tight labor market and inflation running at 5%-6%—don’t bank on it.
In a closely watched decision, the Fed lifted its benchmark lending rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.75% to 5% at the conclusion of its March policy meeting.
Read our latest insight where Dan Suzuki explains what investors need to know about the Silicon Valley Bank collapse.
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by a quarter percentage point and signaled it’s not finished hiking, despite the risk of exacerbating a bank crisis that’s roiled global markets.
Silicon Valley Bank was a “vital cog” in the private market ecosystem, which leads to many questions—and opportunities—across the alternative investments landscape.
Both the leading indicators of growth and liquidity continue to suggest growth will slow as 2023 progresses.
U.S. stocks climbed for a second straight day Tuesday, with the tech-focused Nasdaq Composite ending near a five-week high, as jitters over bank instability eased.
All eyes in the financial and economic world will be laser-focused Wednesday on the Federal Reserve as Chair Jerome Powell tries to balance his fight against inflation against a sudden banking crisis.
Easing financial conditions globally have made Morgan Stanley “outright bullish” on growth stocks in Asia and emerging markets versus their value peers.
A Singapore-based fintech investment firm is close to raising $100 million to back finance and blockchain startups in China and Southeast Asia.
A question has arisen amid all the bank failures. How, with the bond market enduring its worst spasm of volatility in almost four decades, have benchmark-level stocks managed to glide along, oases of calm?
Some of the world’s biggest investors are looking beyond interest-rate hikes, bank failures and the threat of recession to one of the greatest fears of all money managers — missing out on the next big rally.
We have been reminding everyone that we believe we are unwinding a financial euphoria episode that Charlie Munger called the biggest of his career, “because of the totality of it.”
Banking turmoil continues to rattle the global markets and investor confidence.
Fixed Income
Bonds are bonds again: Will it last?
Join Delaware Funds by Macquarie’s Co-Head of US Multisector Fixed Income, Daniela Mardarovici, for an interactive discussion that will help answer some of the biggest questions on investors’ minds.
Disturbing Thoughts
Remember when banks were small? Those old enough to have a bank account in the 1970s should. Back then, most people did their banking with a locally owned institution, often the First National Bank of (Your Town).
The Top Three Catalysts For Higher Gold Prices In 2023
Gold appears to be well-positioned for a strong pump that could carry it to new all-time high prices in 2023—and beyond. As you know, I’ve been following and writing about the precious metal market for a very long time, and I see a number of unique catalysts at the moment that could contribute to higher gold prices.
Stay Focused on the Long Game
In many ways, the process of filling out a bracket is like investing. It requires balancing risk and reward, while maintaining discipline.
Is the Money Safe?
Worries about the health of the overall banking system have led to a drawdown in deposits, with investors yanking nearly $100 billion in deposits from U.S. banks during the week that ended March 15. What’s more, there are fears that the stresses in the banking sector could be the start of the next financial crisis.
Bitcoin’s Stealth Rally Puts It Atop the Quarterly Scoreboard Once Again
Bitcoin’s surprising fast exit from its “crypto winter” has once again put the notoriously volatile digital currency atop the leader-board in the first quarter for being the best-performing asset class by a wide margin.
Schwab ETF Logs $4.6 Billion Inflow Amid Quarter-End Shuffle
Wall Street’s model-portfolio boom appears to have flashed its invisible power for the second time in this week after a once-sleepy Charles Schwab Corp. bond exchange-traded fund received another monster inflow.
Price Growth Slows, Stocks Gain
Stocks built on overnight gains and Treasury yields inched lower following today's relatively benign February PCE inflation data.
Treasury Yields Snapshot: March 31, 2023
The yield on the 10-year note ended March 31, 2023 at 3.48%, the two-year note ended at 4.06%, and the 30-year at 3.67%.
The Impact of Bank Failures and Disintermediation
Early signs of economic unraveling are appearing. The federal corporation that insures bank deposits is woefully underfunded. The Fed is under pressure to pivot away from its inflation fight.
Moving Averages: S&P Finishes March Up 3.51%
Valid until the market close on April 30, 2023.
The S&P 500 closed March with a monthly gain of 3.51%, after a loss of 2.61% in February. At this point, after close on the last day of the month, two of five Ivy portfolio ETFs — Vanguard Real Estate ETF (VNQ) and Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund (DBC) — are signaling "cash," a decrease from last month's final triple "cash" signal.
A Fed Pivot is Not Bullish
Stock investors wishing for the Federal Reserve to pivot should rethink their logic and review the charts below.
Fed Critics Are Missing Some Important Context
Everyone insisting America isn't up to managing the world’s No. 1 economy after the Covid-19 pandemic caused the highest joblessness since the Great Depression and biggest cost-of-living increase in 40 years should ask...
SVB Gives Bond Investors a Stark Lesson in Term Risk
No investment is risk-free, but the closest thing is probably short-term loans to the US government, also known as Treasury bills. That’s because the US government has vast resources to pay back its loans, and investors get their money back quickly.
This Stock Market Splash Has a Disturbing Undertow
The benchmark S&P 500 Index is wrapping up its second straight quarterly gain, rising 5.50% through Thursday and adding to the 7.08% surge in the final three months of 2022.
Recession Indicators Say The Fed Broke Something
Recession indicators are ringing loudly.
Tracing Treasury Liquidity Lower: Once the Ball Starts Rolling, It’s Hard To Stop
It’s been—to put it mildly—an interesting time in the US Treasury market.
T minus 10, 9, 8….
The investment landscape is pockmarked by intractable statistics that continue to impose strategic and psychological barriers to the short term potential of portfolio alpha.
PCE Price Index: February Core at 4.6% YoY
The BEA's Personal Income and Outlays report for February was published on this morning by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The latest headline PCE price index was up 0.3% month-over-month (MoM) and is up 5.0% year-over-year (YoY). Core PCE dropped to 4.6% YoY, still well above the Fed's 2% target rate, and is up 0.3% MoM. All readings were below their respective Investing.com forecasts.
AAA CMBS: Loss-remote, Liquid, And Cheaper Than IG
Fixed income spreads have widened across sectors over the past few months.
Market Volatility and Developments in the Banking Sector
What are the implications of the ongoing volatility in the banking sector, and what does it mean for markets in Europe and globally?
“Not QE” Puts Fed Between A “Rock And A Hard Place”
“QE” or “Quantitative Easing” has been the bull’s “siren song” of the last decade, but will “Not QE” be the same?
Worried About Shadow Banking? Don’t Look at China
When we talk about shadow banking, we think of China, one of the world’s most indebted nations. Lending by companies that do not own a banking license has reached 50 trillion yuan ($7.3 trillion), or about 42% of gross domestic product, according to Moody’s Investors Service.
The Coming Doom Loop
In the face of high and persistent inflation, recession risks, and now a looming insolvency crisis in the financial sector, central banks like the US Federal Reserve are facing a trilemma.
What Makes This Economic Slowdown Different From the Others?
We’ve been watching slumps ripple through various parts of the economy over the past 18 months: technology startups and stocks, regional banks and growing concern about commercial real estate. Yet we’re still waiting for the wider labor market to feel the downturn.
Banking Stresses the Outlook
The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for growth, inflation, employment, and interest rates.
12 Tax-Smart Charitable Giving Tips for 2023
Charitable planning is an important topic to discuss with your clients, especially if they’re facing extraordinary taxable events this year. You can add value to your clients by sharing these tax-smart giving strategies for 2023.
Insurance for All Bank Deposits Is a Manageable Cost
A group of conservative Republicans representatives known as the House Freedom Caucus came out last week against any proposal that would lift the cap on deposit insurance, currently set at $250,000. Members of US Congress on both sides of the aisle are understandably cautious about taking such a dramatic step in the middle of an unfolding crisis.
The Dollar's Coming Slide Will Be Welcomed by the World
The dollar has lost some of its luster over the winter. The twin supports of its status as the preferred haven during the pandemic and being backed by the world’s strongest economy are fading.
Want Safer Banks? Then Prepare for Slower Growth
Congress is asking the Federal Reserve and other financial regulators what went wrong at Silicon Valley Bank and why they didn’t see it coming. In due course, they’ll admit some mistakes, draw some lessons and tweak some rules.
Any Bank Can Fail; Don’t Panic
I’ve received more emails and calls from clients on the failure of SVB Bank than I did on the stock market crash in April of 2020. That tells me there is wide concern today about the stability of the economy and financial markets.
Proposed Bank Changes and Fed Comments
The Senate Banking Committee held a hearing to investigate the collapse of Signature Bank (SBNY) and Silicon Valley Bank (SIVB/SIVBQ) that brought to discussion possible changes for the entire banking system.
From Crisis Comes Opportunity
From the perspective of the U.S. stock market, 2022 was a miserable year (with the S&P 500 declining 19.4%), but until recently, 2023 was shaping up to be a stronger year.
Pending Home Sales Grew for Third Consecutive Month, Up 0.8% in February
The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) released the latest monthly data for its pending home sales index. According to the NAR, "Pending home sales grew in February for the third consecutive month."
Will FedNow Enable Greater Deposit Flight from Troubled Banks?
The failures of Silvergate Bank, Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, and the current struggles of First Republic and Pacific West Bank have seen bank deposits flee to the perceived safety of large banks.
S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index Continued Decline in January
With this morning's release of the January S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index, we learned that seasonally adjusted home prices for the benchmark 20-city index saw a 0.4% decrease month-over-month (MoM), higher than the Investing.com forecast of -0.5%, and a 2.6% increase year-over-year (YoY). After adjusting for inflation, the MoM was reduced to -1.1% and the YoY was reduced to -4.8%.
Biden Has to Learn the Same Lesson as SVB
In hindsight, it was obvious it wouldn’t last. Low interest rates — the result of shifts in the global economy, economic stability, low inflation and monetary policy — couldn’t stay at zero forever.
History Says to Buy the Fed Pause. Should You?
A year into its fight against inflation, the Federal Reserve could — just maybe — be done raising its policy rate. History shows that monetary policy pauses mark great buying opportunities for US stocks, but there are several key caveats to bear in mind this time.
The Supreme Court May Quash Biden's Student Loan Forgiveness: Here's What Borrowers Should Do
For millions of borrowers, student loan forgiveness will mean the difference between significant relief and ongoing payments. If you’re among them, the question is… what next?
What Happens in the Banking Sector Won’t Stay There
The sudden loss of confidence by depositors in some US banks is causing many to focus on the scope for financial contagion and the needed policy responses. What should not be overlooked is the other, and slower, contagion channel in play — that involving enablers of economic growth...
Banking Stresses the Outlook
The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for growth, inflation, employment, and interest rates.
Confessions of a Currency Manager
Predicting spot exchanges is tricky, but there are still ways of adding value in currency markets, including through a disciplined approach we call currency factor investing.
The Consequences of Credit Suisse
The demise of a major bank illustrates the global tensions in the financial sector.
Favorable Current Strategy - Yield and Duration
Doug Drabik discusses fixed income market conditions and offers insight for bond investors.
From A Deep Dive Into The Banking Sector
Beyond the near-term turmoil, there may need to be a re-evaluation of the regional banking model in the United States, according to a recent panel hosted by Stephen Dover, Head of Franklin Templeton Institute.
Consumer Confidence Increased Slightly in March
The Conference Board released its Consumer Confidence Index ® this morning, with the headline number coming in at 104.2, an increase of 0.8 from the upwardly revised final reading of 103.4 in February. This month's reading is better than the Investing.com forecast of 101.0.
FHFA House Price Index Up 0.2% in January, Beats Forecast
The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) has released its U.S. house price index (HPI) for January. U.S. house prices increased by 0.2% from the previous month. Year-over-year the index is up 5.3% on a non-seasonally adjusted nominal basis. After adjusting for inflation and seasonality, the real index is down 0.2% in January and down 0.3% year-over-year (seasonally adjusted).
The Fundamental Logic of Annuities with Lifetime Income
A simple annuity can effectively replace bond holdings in a retirement plan that are earmarked to meet the lifetime spending goal. The question is why should a retiree hold any bonds in the portion of their asset base designed to cover ongoing retirement spending goals?
The Fed Waffles
The Federal Reserve raised short-term interest rates by another quarter point on Wednesday.
Silicon Valley Bank’s Failure Highlights Systemically Combustible Conditions
Many have questioned the importance of the recent bank failures.
First Quarter 2023 Economic Review and Forecast
The economic signals and a host of geopolitical risks confronting investors suggest that 2023 could be as challenging as 20022 for both stocks and bonds.
The Dilemma That Isn’t: Bonds versus Bond Funds
Should investors build their own portfolios of bonds, or buy shares of bond funds? Is there an economic difference or just one of appearance? Are directly held bonds safer because they mature, and you get your money back? How should one decide?
On Quitting Early, the Decumulation Problem and Living to 100
Annie Duke, once one of the best female poker players in the world, helped me understand why people work longer than they need to. This got me thinking about the decumulation problem more broadly and planning to live to age 100.
Regulation Can’t Prevent the Next Financial Crisis
For all of you following the banking crises in the US and Europe, and asking why this is all happening again, I have bad news: Regardless of what laws are passed, or which regulations are issued, banking crises will recur — and not infrequently.
The Pros Fail to Meet the Moment With Bond ETFs
The pitch for an actively managed bond exchange-traded fund can be compelling, especially when there’s market turmoil and uncertainty
The Fed Faces Its Trilemma
The fallout from SVB will make the Fed's job more difficult.
Market and Economic Dynamics to Keep an Eye On
Review the latest Weekly Headings by CIO Larry Adam.
From Anomaly to Opportunity: High Yields on Short Bonds
Stock and bond markets were shaken by the recent banking crisis in the US and Europe.
“Not QE” Puts Fed Between A “Rock And A Hard Place”
“QE” or “Quantitative Easing” has been the bull’s “siren song” of the last decade, but will “Not QE” be the same?
Rare Opportunity To Earn Monthly Dividend Income At A Reasonable Price
Realty Income, A.K.A. the Monthly Dividend Company, has rarely been attractively valued since the spring of 2010. However, rising interest rates have brought the price down to fair value.
Fed Weighs Stubborn Inflation Against Banking System Stress
Slower credit growth may curtail broader U.S. economic growth, taking pressure off the Federal Reserve.
Recession Odds Rising
Recently I saw someone share a clip from their weather app. It said, “Rain expected at 3 pm,” right above a little graphic showing a 30% chance of rain at 3 pm. What’s wrong with that picture?
Is This The End Of The Petrodollar?
The U.S. dollar remains the world’s top reserve currency for now, though its share of global central banks’ official holdings has slipped in the past 20 years. By contrast, the yuan’s share of official holdings has more than doubled since 2016.
Fed Hikes Rates as Bank Worries Spread Globally
As interest rates show signs of peaking, gold prices are nearing new all-time highs.
Sinology: Opportunity and Risk
China’s economy is in the early stages of a gradual, consumer-led recovery. In this issue of Sinology, Andy Rothman outlines why China’s opportunities outweigh risks.
How Is the SVB and Credit Suisse Crisis Affecting the US and European Banking Industry?
Following recent efforts by central banks and regulators to alleviate the banking crisis, Franklin Templeton Institute’s Stephen Dover and Lukasz Kalwak discuss their thoughts on the implications and outlook for the banking industries in the United States and Europe.
Growth in Real Money Supply is What is Important for Taming Inflation, and for the Fed
Chief Economist Eugenio J. Alemán discusses current economic conditions.
Echoes Of '08? Don't Bank On It
The GMO Focused Equity team has evaluated banks in the context of our Quality Strategy for 20 years, using both quantitative and fundamental analysis to invest in high-quality banks with healthy financials and in our opinion responsible management practices.
What are JGBs Trying to Tell Us?
Yields on 10-Year Japanese Government Bonds have fallen by about a third over the past two weeks, as shown in the chart below.
The Crucial Questions
To help understand the current market volatility arising from the collapse of banks in the United States and Europe, Head of Franklin Templeton Institute Stephen Dover provides his answers to three crucial questions.
Markets Again Under Pressure
Stocks fell and volatility rose this morning as banking sector worries persist.
Gold Bulls Look to Push through $2,000
Gold prices surged to test the $2,000/oz level early this week before retreating ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision.
Market Focus Moves from the Fed to Financial Crisis
Yesterday, the Fed completed its regular meeting and announced that it would increase interest rates by 25 bps, or a quarter percentage point.
Phase Two of the Fed Follies
Lower interest rates and more liquidity are the keys to boosting confidence in the financial sector, but they impede the Fed's ability to fight inflation.
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey: Activity Stayed Flat
The latest Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey composite index came in at 0, unchanged from last month's figure. The future outlook came in at 3, up 2 from last month.
What are JGBs Trying to Tell Us?
Yields on 10-Year Japanese Government Bonds have fallen by about a third over the past two weeks, as shown in the chart below.
Don’t Bank On It
Financial markets seem to have returned to trying to time a dovish Federal Reserve turn, but Franklin Templeton Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai says with a tight labor market and inflation running at 5%-6%—don’t bank on it.
March Fed Rate Hike: Sometimes the Moments That Challenge Us the Most Define Us
In a closely watched decision, the Fed lifted its benchmark lending rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.75% to 5% at the conclusion of its March policy meeting.
Some Thoughts on Banks
Read our latest insight where Dan Suzuki explains what investors need to know about the Silicon Valley Bank collapse.
Fed Hikes Quarter Point, Signals It Still Expects Higher Rates
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by a quarter percentage point and signaled it’s not finished hiking, despite the risk of exacerbating a bank crisis that’s roiled global markets.
Alternative Investments Outlook Post-SVB
Silicon Valley Bank was a “vital cog” in the private market ecosystem, which leads to many questions—and opportunities—across the alternative investments landscape.
The Growth Slowdown Is Not Over Yet
Both the leading indicators of growth and liquidity continue to suggest growth will slow as 2023 progresses.
Stocks Climb Ahead of Fed Meeting
U.S. stocks climbed for a second straight day Tuesday, with the tech-focused Nasdaq Composite ending near a five-week high, as jitters over bank instability eased.
Fed Caught Between Inflation and Bank Crisis
All eyes in the financial and economic world will be laser-focused Wednesday on the Federal Reserve as Chair Jerome Powell tries to balance his fight against inflation against a sudden banking crisis.
Morgan Stanley Turns ‘Outright Bullish’ on Asian Growth Stocks
Easing financial conditions globally have made Morgan Stanley “outright bullish” on growth stocks in Asia and emerging markets versus their value peers.
GLP-Backed Fund to Raise $100 Million for Asian Fintech Deals
A Singapore-based fintech investment firm is close to raising $100 million to back finance and blockchain startups in China and Southeast Asia.
Stocks Are Shrugging Off Bank Woes With Help From Hedge Funds
A question has arisen amid all the bank failures. How, with the bond market enduring its worst spasm of volatility in almost four decades, have benchmark-level stocks managed to glide along, oases of calm?
Biggest Fear for Trillion-Dollar Funds Is Missing Next Rally
Some of the world’s biggest investors are looking beyond interest-rate hikes, bank failures and the threat of recession to one of the greatest fears of all money managers — missing out on the next big rally.
Funding Unprofitable Growth
We have been reminding everyone that we believe we are unwinding a financial euphoria episode that Charlie Munger called the biggest of his career, “because of the totality of it.”
Banking, Inflation, and the Fed: Where Do We Go From Here?
Banking turmoil continues to rattle the global markets and investor confidence.