The importance of Biden’s veto to save the DOL rule was not about assessing ESG factors. It was about affirming the role of the fiduciary in investment advice.
Income-seeking investors are accustomed to casting wide nets after years of low yields.
Silicon Valley Bank was a “vital cog” in the private market ecosystem, which leads to many questions—and opportunities—across the alternative investments landscape.
A question has arisen amid all the bank failures. How, with the bond market enduring its worst spasm of volatility in almost four decades, have benchmark-level stocks managed to glide along, oases of calm?
Some of the world’s biggest investors are looking beyond interest-rate hikes, bank failures and the threat of recession to one of the greatest fears of all money managers — missing out on the next big rally.
Banking turmoil continues to rattle the global markets and investor confidence.
CIO Larry Adam outlines the positive events that are outweighing negative developments and looks at dynamics to focus on in the week ahead.
The simplest thing that can be said about current financial market and banking conditions is this: the unwinding of this Fed-induced, yield-seeking speculative bubble is proceeding as one would expect, and it’s not over by a longshot.
Five of eight indexes on our world watch list posted gains through March 20, 2023. France's CAC 40 finished in the top spot with a YTD gain of 8.33%. Germany's DAXK finished second with a YTD gain of 6.94%, and China's Shanghai moved to third with a YTD gain of 4.71%. India's BSE SENSEX finished last with a loss of 5.28% YTD.
Steve Chiavarone doesn’t want to scare anyone, but what he remembers most from the last banking crisis was how sure most people were that it wouldn’t happen.
Portfolio Manager Andy Acker explains why the healthcare sector could offer an attractive combination of defense and growth in today’s market.
UBS Group AG agreed to buy Credit Suisse Group AG in a historic, government-brokered deal aimed at containing a crisis of confidence that had started to spread across global financial markets.
Robust risk management is essential for fixed income investors. In his latest commentary, Marcus Moore explains why our sustainable investing team considers ESG factors as material business risks, similar to the traditional risks they also analyze.
Central banks endlessly fascinate me.
Franklin Templeton Investment Solutions explores the shared macro concerns that set the stage for the recent banking crisis, its ripple effects on the broader economy and implications for multi-asset investing.
New research confirms the valuable role that short sellers play in correcting the valuations of overpriced stocks.
Sixty-six million Americans currently receive monthly benefits from Social Security, which, if nothing changes, is expected to be insolvent by 2035 at the latest. It’s time for Americans to take a greater role in their own retirement planning.
My “five-step investment process” provides an ongoing systematic framework for making portfolio decisions, and further incorporating financial planning and tax considerations into overall portfolio construction.
The yield on the 10-year note ended March 17, 2023 at 3.39%, the two-year note ended at 3.81%, and the 30-year at 3.60%.
U.S. equities are lower as pressure has returned to the banking sector, which remains top of mind.
The latest Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for February was down 0.3% to 110.0 from January's final figure of 110.3, marking the 11th consecutive MoM decline. Today's reading was consistent with the Investing.com forecast.
Portfolio manager Peeyush Mittal and research analyst Swagato Ghosh say India has a fiscal playbook to chart a path of stability and growth.
In a dovish move, the central bank raises rates by half a point.
Implications of SVB and Credit Suisse on the European banking sector—check out highlights from our recent panel discussion with Kim Catechis, Investment Strategist with the Franklin Templeton Institute.
Is upheaval in the banking sector the prelude to a financial crisis, or just the biggest bump yet on the road to restoring order to the economy? Stock investors clinging to hopes this too shall pass are having their tolerance for pain severely tested.
Financial market volatility has followed the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank. Stephen Dover, Head of Franklin Templeton Institute, shares his thoughts on possible implications outside the United States.
Credit Suisse’s problems revealed today stem from issues the company discussed last June in a profit warning.
U.S. stocks are falling in pre-market trading as recent banking turmoil on this side of the pond made its way to Europe.
The failure of Silicon Valley Bank raises questions for Fed policy and economic growth.
The extreme “tail” risk ahead may be disorienting.
Investors are zeroing in on key parts of the market for short-term dollar borrowing to determine if and how signs of systemic stress might be emerging after the biggest US bank collapse in over a decade.
Regulators' prompt response and the creation of a new lending facility should limit broader market fallout from recent bank failures, notes Chief Investment Officer Larry Adam.
Why did Silicon Valley Bank fail?
Let’s explore the barriers that have kept alts in an ivory tower, why they’re becoming mainstream, and how advisors and their clients can incorporate alts into their portfolios.
My research confirms what academic theory predicts: There has been no historical alpha among dividend-paying stocks, including those with a history of increasing dividends. Investors are better served by “tilting” allocations to factors that have historically outperformed (e.g., value).
Here’s an update on the latest news involving Silicon Valley Bank and the implications for the Fed and markets, from Stephen Dover, Head of Franklin Templeton Institute.
If a picture is worth a thousand words, this will be the “longest” letter I’ve sent you in a while, as there are quite a few pictures. It may also be the most wide-ranging.
Like face recognition, artificial intelligence (AI), mRNA vaccines and other modern technology, Bitcoin is a key component of the ongoing, rapidly accelerating digital transformation.
Greg Becker sat in a red armchair at an invite-only conference in Los Angeles last week, legs crossed, one hand cutting through air.
Review the latest portfolio strategy commentary from Mike Gibbs, managing director of Equity Portfolio and Technical Strategy.
U.S. equities are modestly higher in pre-market action following the February labor report that was only modestly above estimates.
Head of Portfolio Strategy David Dali explains why it’s an opportune time to add emerging-market exposure.
This morning's employment report for February showed a 311,000 increase in total nonfarm payrolls, which exceeded the Investing.com forecast of 205,000 jobs added. The unemployment rate rose to 3.6%.
We believe municipal bonds boast several key factors that position them as an attractive asset class in general, but especially so when markets are volatile.
U.S. stocks are higher, paring weekly losses though the markets remain choppy following this week's hawkish Congressional testimony from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell.
International Women's Day is a global observance that recognizes and celebrates women's social, economic, cultural, and political achievements.
Investors focusing on climate change often overlook Chinese firms.
The problem with speculation is that there’s usually a gap between the underlying risk and the inevitable outcome.
President Joe Biden is proposing a series of new tax increases on billionaires, rich investors and corporations in his latest proposal for how Congress should prioritize taxes and spending.
The long-term outlook for stocks remains questionable, as most of my leading indicators of risk assets suggest sub-par performance over the next year or so.
A new exchange-traded fund is making the case that having women at the top of corporations translates into better returns.
Soft landing or hard landing? Recession or no recession? In my mind, there is no question more important.
High-yield investors beware. Junk bonds that were financed at low, fixed rates will eventually mature and, according to Jeffrey Gundlach, weak issuers that cannot refinance at higher rates will default.
Read our latest insight to learn why we believe this year's market rally is just speculation and how we are positioning our portfolios for a change in leadership.
Take a look at real (inflation-adjusted) charts of the S&P 500, Dow 30, and Nasdaq composite since 2000. We've updated this through the February 28, 2023 close.
Junior debt issued by banks is normally one of the riskiest types of fixed-income in the US and Europe. It’s typically not backed by collateral and in the event of a crisis it only gets paid back after other bonds.
The planet’s billionaires are nearly $2 trillion poorer this year!
European stocks have outperformed this year as China’s economy restarts and the energy shock proved less severe than expected.
The landscape for M&A and recruitment in the advisory profession will continue to be strong.
Recently, many market commentators have been preaching the message that fixed income investors should stick to a low duration strategy.
The S&P 500 real monthly averages of daily closes peaked in November of 2021 and 2022 was a bear market. Let's examine the past to broaden our understanding of the range of historical trends in market performance.
Before making a hedge fund investment, investors and their advisors should consider four key questions.
Machine learning shows great promise for empirical asset pricing and has the potential to improve our understanding of expected asset returns.
With bonds and stocks once again falling in unison, cash is the ultimate refuge.
The fixed-income market’s unblemished record of striking fear into the hearts of equity traders is in danger.
Lufthansa’s blockbuster report is just the latest signal that commercial aviation, one of the hardest-hit industries during the pandemic, may be ready to make a landing again in investors’ portfolios.
Today’s inflationary market landscape is fraught with risks for investors. Despite these circumstances, Scott Welch and Kevin Flanagan outline how bond investors can generate yield.
The Federal Reserve said that further interest-rate hikes would be required to restore price stability.
It’s a time-honored tale. A new force enters the market — quantitative easing, leveraged ETFs, high-frequency trading — and a cottage industry on Wall Street is born devoted to exposing the risks it supposedly poses for investors.
Economic growth and inflation have surprised to the upside so far in 2023, not only thanks to the reopening of the Chinese economy, but also due to the resilience of the labour markets.
The February US services purchasing managers' index (PMI) conducted by S&P Global came in at 50.6 percent, notably up from 46.8 in January and just slightly higher than the Investing.com forecast of 50.5. This morning's reading moves the index into expansion territory after being in contraction for seven months.
Global Investment Strategist Rob Almeida explores how inflation may impact earnings and his outlook for stocks and bonds this year.
A recent Wall Street Journal article discussed how retail traders that made millions during the pandemic trading the market are now mostly wiped out.
We just finished up our annual report on the $20 billion club, and we've concluded that 2022 was a weird year for pension plans.
Markets this month were unable to build upon January's momentum following speculation that the central bank will continue with interest rate hikes.
Medical Properties Trust’s dividend at the 2022 rate of $1.16 is safe even if Prospect, its third-largest operator, does not pay a single cent in 2023.
Last week, I spoke at the Mississippi CFA Society’s annual forecasting event.
Here is the latest update of a popular market valuation method using the most recent Standard & Poor's "as reported" earnings and earnings estimates, and the index monthly average of daily closes for the past month.
Whether you’re a lover or loather of Jim Cramer — and on both Wall Street and Main Street, there are plenty of each — you’re now able to express that view via the magic of ETFs.
As of February 28, 2023, the 10-year note was 340 basis points above its historic closing low of 0.52%, reached on August 4, 2020.
In telling their stories about how the future is bright for stocks, bulls point to solid earnings to justify the optimism. But cracks are forming in that narrative — in the trajectory of profits, and just as worryingly in the makeup of the profits themselves.
"We forgot that war is history’s favourite driver of inflation." -Niall Ferguson
The Q Ratio is the total price of the market divided by the replacement cost of all its companies. Note: This update includes February close data.
Making the case for international value investing—thoughts from Templeton Global Equity Group on why now’s the time to consider expanding one’s investment horizons.
Valid until the market close on March 31, 2023.
The S&P 500 closed February with a monthly loss of 2.61%, after a gain of 6.18% in January. At this point, after close on the last day of the month, three of five S&P 500 strategies are signaling "cash" — iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEF), Vanguard Real Estate ETF (VNQ), and Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund (DBC) — up from from last month's single "cash" signal.
Review the latest Weekly Headings by CIO Larry Adam.
U.S. stocks are subdued in pre-market action as the global markets remain choppy amid the backdrop of uncertainty regarding the ultimate impact of aggressive monetary policy tightening.
In just one month, emerging Asian assets have gone from a buy to sell. And all signs point to continued caution as March draws near.
Turbulent equity markets and lofty bond yields has cash back in high demand.
Mutual Funds
The Fiduciary is the "Decider"
The importance of Biden’s veto to save the DOL rule was not about assessing ESG factors. It was about affirming the role of the fiduciary in investment advice.
Taming Biases in High-Dividend Equity Strategies
Income-seeking investors are accustomed to casting wide nets after years of low yields.
Alternative Investments Outlook Post-SVB
Silicon Valley Bank was a “vital cog” in the private market ecosystem, which leads to many questions—and opportunities—across the alternative investments landscape.
Stocks Are Shrugging Off Bank Woes With Help From Hedge Funds
A question has arisen amid all the bank failures. How, with the bond market enduring its worst spasm of volatility in almost four decades, have benchmark-level stocks managed to glide along, oases of calm?
Biggest Fear for Trillion-Dollar Funds Is Missing Next Rally
Some of the world’s biggest investors are looking beyond interest-rate hikes, bank failures and the threat of recession to one of the greatest fears of all money managers — missing out on the next big rally.
Banking, Inflation, and the Fed: Where Do We Go From Here?
Banking turmoil continues to rattle the global markets and investor confidence.
Incremental Progress Emerging in the Banking Sector Fallout
CIO Larry Adam outlines the positive events that are outweighing negative developments and looks at dynamics to focus on in the week ahead.
Edge of the Edge
The simplest thing that can be said about current financial market and banking conditions is this: the unwinding of this Fed-induced, yield-seeking speculative bubble is proceeding as one would expect, and it’s not over by a longshot.
World Markets Update: March 20, 2023
Five of eight indexes on our world watch list posted gains through March 20, 2023. France's CAC 40 finished in the top spot with a YTD gain of 8.33%. Germany's DAXK finished second with a YTD gain of 6.94%, and China's Shanghai moved to third with a YTD gain of 4.71%. India's BSE SENSEX finished last with a loss of 5.28% YTD.
Bank Crisis Survivors Remember How Fast the Dominoes Can Fall
Steve Chiavarone doesn’t want to scare anyone, but what he remembers most from the last banking crisis was how sure most people were that it wouldn’t happen.
Two Sides of Healthcare, One Strong Investment Case
Portfolio Manager Andy Acker explains why the healthcare sector could offer an attractive combination of defense and growth in today’s market.
UBS to Buy Credit Suisse in $3.3 Billion Deal to End Crisis
UBS Group AG agreed to buy Credit Suisse Group AG in a historic, government-brokered deal aimed at containing a crisis of confidence that had started to spread across global financial markets.
Sustainable Investing: Opportunistically Managing Risk
Robust risk management is essential for fixed income investors. In his latest commentary, Marcus Moore explains why our sustainable investing team considers ESG factors as material business risks, similar to the traditional risks they also analyze.
The Fed’s Got Inflation Backwards
Central banks endlessly fascinate me.
A Multi-Asset Perspective on Recent Bank Turmoil: Don’t Lose Sight of the Macro Story
Franklin Templeton Investment Solutions explores the shared macro concerns that set the stage for the recent banking crisis, its ripple effects on the broader economy and implications for multi-asset investing.
New Evidence that Short Sellers Correct Overpriced Stocks
New research confirms the valuable role that short sellers play in correcting the valuations of overpriced stocks.
Pension Reform Showdown: Will The U.S. Follow France’s Bold Retirement Age Changes?
Sixty-six million Americans currently receive monthly benefits from Social Security, which, if nothing changes, is expected to be insolvent by 2035 at the latest. It’s time for Americans to take a greater role in their own retirement planning.
The Professor's Portfolio
My “five-step investment process” provides an ongoing systematic framework for making portfolio decisions, and further incorporating financial planning and tax considerations into overall portfolio construction.
Treasury Yields Snapshot: March 17, 2023
The yield on the 10-year note ended March 17, 2023 at 3.39%, the two-year note ended at 3.81%, and the 30-year at 3.60%.
Banking Sector Uncertainty Keeps Pressure on Stocks
U.S. equities are lower as pressure has returned to the banking sector, which remains top of mind.
CB LEI: Down 0.3% in February, Still Pointing to Risk of Recession
The latest Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for February was down 0.3% to 110.0 from January's final figure of 110.3, marking the 11th consecutive MoM decline. Today's reading was consistent with the Investing.com forecast.
India’s Balancing Act
Portfolio manager Peeyush Mittal and research analyst Swagato Ghosh say India has a fiscal playbook to chart a path of stability and growth.
The ECB Hikes Rates Amid Financial Market Volatility
In a dovish move, the central bank raises rates by half a point.
European Banking Sector—Taking Stock After Silicon Valley Bank and Credit Suisse
Implications of SVB and Credit Suisse on the European banking sector—check out highlights from our recent panel discussion with Kim Catechis, Investment Strategist with the Franklin Templeton Institute.
Crisis Narrative Forcing Out All Others in Bank-Obsessed Markets
Is upheaval in the banking sector the prelude to a financial crisis, or just the biggest bump yet on the road to restoring order to the economy? Stock investors clinging to hopes this too shall pass are having their tolerance for pain severely tested.
Banks and the Butterfly Effect—the Global Ramifications
Financial market volatility has followed the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank. Stephen Dover, Head of Franklin Templeton Institute, shares his thoughts on possible implications outside the United States.
Credit Suisse’s Chickens Come Home to Roost
Credit Suisse’s problems revealed today stem from issues the company discussed last June in a profit warning.
Stocks Falling as European Banking Worries Flare Up
U.S. stocks are falling in pre-market trading as recent banking turmoil on this side of the pond made its way to Europe.
Bank Failures and the Fed
The failure of Silicon Valley Bank raises questions for Fed policy and economic growth.
Headed For The Tail
The extreme “tail” risk ahead may be disorienting.
What to Watch in Money Markets for Signs of Systemic Bank Stress
Investors are zeroing in on key parts of the market for short-term dollar borrowing to determine if and how signs of systemic stress might be emerging after the biggest US bank collapse in over a decade.
Recent Bank Failures a Potential Game-Changer for The Fed
Regulators' prompt response and the creation of a new lending facility should limit broader market fallout from recent bank failures, notes Chief Investment Officer Larry Adam.
Making Sense of SVB, a Unique Bank with a Classic Problem
Why did Silicon Valley Bank fail?
Alts Investing is Mainstream: The Right Custodian Can Help
Let’s explore the barriers that have kept alts in an ivory tower, why they’re becoming mainstream, and how advisors and their clients can incorporate alts into their portfolios.
The Evidence Against Favoring Dividend-Paying Stocks
My research confirms what academic theory predicts: There has been no historical alpha among dividend-paying stocks, including those with a history of increasing dividends. Investors are better served by “tilting” allocations to factors that have historically outperformed (e.g., value).
Silicon Valley Bank Failure Ripples Through the Market
Here’s an update on the latest news involving Silicon Valley Bank and the implications for the Fed and markets, from Stephen Dover, Head of Franklin Templeton Institute.
Thousand-Word Equivalents
If a picture is worth a thousand words, this will be the “longest” letter I’ve sent you in a while, as there are quite a few pictures. It may also be the most wide-ranging.
Bitcoin Is A Key Component Of The Great Digital Transformation
Like face recognition, artificial intelligence (AI), mRNA vaccines and other modern technology, Bitcoin is a key component of the ongoing, rapidly accelerating digital transformation.
SVB’s 44-Hour Collapse Was Rooted in Treasury Bets During Pandemic
Greg Becker sat in a red armchair at an invite-only conference in Los Angeles last week, legs crossed, one hand cutting through air.
Weekly Market Guide
Review the latest portfolio strategy commentary from Mike Gibbs, managing director of Equity Portfolio and Technical Strategy.
Stocks Trying to Battle Back From a Two-Day Rout
U.S. equities are modestly higher in pre-market action following the February labor report that was only modestly above estimates.
Add Emerging Market Strength in Global Weakness
Head of Portfolio Strategy David Dali explains why it’s an opportune time to add emerging-market exposure.
February Employment: 311K Jobs Added, Higher Than Forecast
This morning's employment report for February showed a 311,000 increase in total nonfarm payrolls, which exceeded the Investing.com forecast of 205,000 jobs added. The unemployment rate rose to 3.6%.
Municipal Bond Outlook 2023: Three Reasons for Optimism
We believe municipal bonds boast several key factors that position them as an attractive asset class in general, but especially so when markets are volatile.
Stocks Chipping Away at Weekly Losses
U.S. stocks are higher, paring weekly losses though the markets remain choppy following this week's hawkish Congressional testimony from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell.
WISE Words from Women on International Women’s Day
International Women's Day is a global observance that recognizes and celebrates women's social, economic, cultural, and political achievements.
China’s Green Enablers Deserve a Place in Equity Funds
Investors focusing on climate change often overlook Chinese firms.
Pushing Your Luck
The problem with speculation is that there’s usually a gap between the underlying risk and the inevitable outcome.
Biden to Urge 25% Billionaire Tax, Levies on Rich Investors
President Joe Biden is proposing a series of new tax increases on billionaires, rich investors and corporations in his latest proposal for how Congress should prioritize taxes and spending.
Is Now The Time To Buy Stocks?
The long-term outlook for stocks remains questionable, as most of my leading indicators of risk assets suggest sub-par performance over the next year or so.
Fund of Women-Run Firms Is Beating the S&P 500 Since Launching
A new exchange-traded fund is making the case that having women at the top of corporations translates into better returns.
Getting Ahead of Ourselves
Soft landing or hard landing? Recession or no recession? In my mind, there is no question more important.
Gundlach: We Could Have the Worst Default Cycle Ever
High-yield investors beware. Junk bonds that were financed at low, fixed rates will eventually mature and, according to Jeffrey Gundlach, weak issuers that cannot refinance at higher rates will default.
Don’t Speculate on Speculation
Read our latest insight to learn why we believe this year's market rally is just speculation and how we are positioning our portfolios for a change in leadership.
The S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq Since Their 2000 Highs
Take a look at real (inflation-adjusted) charts of the S&P 500, Dow 30, and Nasdaq composite since 2000. We've updated this through the February 28, 2023 close.
Risky Is Now Safe in Bond Market Upset by Soaring Inflation
Junior debt issued by banks is normally one of the riskiest types of fixed-income in the US and Europe. It’s typically not backed by collateral and in the event of a crisis it only gets paid back after other bonds.
Newsletter Volume 16, No. 1 February 2023
The planet’s billionaires are nearly $2 trillion poorer this year!
Is Now The Time To Buy Stocks?
The long-term outlook for stocks remains questionable, as most of my leading indicators of risk assets suggest sub-par performance over the next year or so.
Europe: Sticky Inflation Favors Income
European stocks have outperformed this year as China’s economy restarts and the energy shock proved less severe than expected.
A Positive Outlook for Recruitment and M&A
The landscape for M&A and recruitment in the advisory profession will continue to be strong.
Investing for Your Long Term Goals
Recently, many market commentators have been preaching the message that fixed income investors should stick to a low duration strategy.
February 2023: A Perspective on Secular Bull and Bear Markets
The S&P 500 real monthly averages of daily closes peaked in November of 2021 and 2022 was a bear market. Let's examine the past to broaden our understanding of the range of historical trends in market performance.
Four Key Questions to Ask Before Making a Hedge Fund Investment
Before making a hedge fund investment, investors and their advisors should consider four key questions.
The Promise of Machine Learning
Machine learning shows great promise for empirical asset pricing and has the potential to improve our understanding of expected asset returns.
BofA Strategists See Cash Back in Vogue With Markets on Edge
With bonds and stocks once again falling in unison, cash is the ultimate refuge.
Stock Traders Are Ignoring Blaring Bond Alarms
The fixed-income market’s unblemished record of striking fear into the hearts of equity traders is in danger.
Airline Stocks Are Soaring Over The Negative Headlines, Lifted By Positive Earnings
Lufthansa’s blockbuster report is just the latest signal that commercial aviation, one of the hardest-hit industries during the pandemic, may be ready to make a landing again in investors’ portfolios.
What’s Yield Got to Do, Got to Do with It?
Today’s inflationary market landscape is fraught with risks for investors. Despite these circumstances, Scott Welch and Kevin Flanagan outline how bond investors can generate yield.
Fed Says More Rate Hikes Are Needed to Curb Inflation
The Federal Reserve said that further interest-rate hikes would be required to restore price stability.
Clueless Wall Street Is Racing to Size Up Zero-Day Options Boom
It’s a time-honored tale. A new force enters the market — quantitative easing, leveraged ETFs, high-frequency trading — and a cottage industry on Wall Street is born devoted to exposing the risks it supposedly poses for investors.
Navigating A Turbulent Environment: EM IG To The Rescue
Economic growth and inflation have surprised to the upside so far in 2023, not only thanks to the reopening of the Chinese economy, but also due to the resilience of the labour markets.
S&P Global Services PMI: Renewed Expansion in February
The February US services purchasing managers' index (PMI) conducted by S&P Global came in at 50.6 percent, notably up from 46.8 in January and just slightly higher than the Investing.com forecast of 50.5. This morning's reading moves the index into expansion territory after being in contraction for seven months.
What's Ahead in 2023?
Global Investment Strategist Rob Almeida explores how inflation may impact earnings and his outlook for stocks and bonds this year.
Retail Traders Go Bust As Speculation Inevitably Goes Wrong
A recent Wall Street Journal article discussed how retail traders that made millions during the pandemic trading the market are now mostly wiped out.
$20 Billion Club: It's Been a Minute Since We've Seen Numbers Like This…
We just finished up our annual report on the $20 billion club, and we've concluded that 2022 was a weird year for pension plans.
Fed's Path to Cooling Inflation Continues to Loom Large
Markets this month were unable to build upon January's momentum following speculation that the central bank will continue with interest rate hikes.
Medical Properties Trust: 11.26% Yield – The Risk is Priced In
Medical Properties Trust’s dividend at the 2022 rate of $1.16 is safe even if Prospect, its third-largest operator, does not pay a single cent in 2023.
The Indexing Bomb
Last week, I spoke at the Mississippi CFA Society’s annual forecasting event.
P/E10: February 2023 Update
Here is the latest update of a popular market valuation method using the most recent Standard & Poor's "as reported" earnings and earnings estimates, and the index monthly average of daily closes for the past month.
Jim Cramer ETFs Arrive to Bet On, Against Mad Money Host’s Picks
Whether you’re a lover or loather of Jim Cramer — and on both Wall Street and Main Street, there are plenty of each — you’re now able to express that view via the magic of ETFs.
Treasury Yields: A Long-Term Perspective
As of February 28, 2023, the 10-year note was 340 basis points above its historic closing low of 0.52%, reached on August 4, 2020.
Corporate America’s Earnings Quality Is the Worst in Three Decades
In telling their stories about how the future is bright for stocks, bulls point to solid earnings to justify the optimism. But cracks are forming in that narrative — in the trajectory of profits, and just as worryingly in the makeup of the profits themselves.
One Year On
"We forgot that war is history’s favourite driver of inflation." -Niall Ferguson
The Q Ratio and Market Valuation: February Update
The Q Ratio is the total price of the market divided by the replacement cost of all its companies. Note: This update includes February close data.
International Equities: Poised for Recovery
Making the case for international value investing—thoughts from Templeton Global Equity Group on why now’s the time to consider expanding one’s investment horizons.
Moving Averages: S&P Finishes a Volatile February Down 2.61%
Valid until the market close on March 31, 2023.
The S&P 500 closed February with a monthly loss of 2.61%, after a gain of 6.18% in January. At this point, after close on the last day of the month, three of five S&P 500 strategies are signaling "cash" — iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEF), Vanguard Real Estate ETF (VNQ), and Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund (DBC) — up from from last month's single "cash" signal.
How Russia’s War Has Shifted the Geopolitical Landscape
Review the latest Weekly Headings by CIO Larry Adam.
Stocks Muted as Choppiness Remains
U.S. stocks are subdued in pre-market action as the global markets remain choppy amid the backdrop of uncertainty regarding the ultimate impact of aggressive monetary policy tightening.
Frightful February Ends Call to Buy Everything in Emerging Asia
In just one month, emerging Asian assets have gone from a buy to sell. And all signs point to continued caution as March draws near.
Cash-Like ETF Attracts $2.5 Billion in Biggest Haul Since 2020
Turbulent equity markets and lofty bond yields has cash back in high demand.