Portfolio Building

You read that right. The Fed wants lower stock prices.

Let's examine the three paths the Fed might take in 2023 and what they mean for stock prices.

An OCIO can deliver vastly expanded investment capabilities while seamlessly alleviating the burden of investment infrastructure, operations back-office, and administrative tasks, freeing up advisors’ time for vital client-facing and relationship-building activities.

Putting 60% of a portfolio in stocks and 40% in bonds is supposed to hedge against both assets dropping simultaneously. But it didn’t pan out that way in 2022.

The Fed’s repeated manipulation of the price of capital has weakened productivity growth and reduced economic activity. Ultimately it is the citizens that pay the price.

The financial foghorn is blowing. Historical odds greatly favor a recession, stock market drawdown, and a much lower Fed funds rate.

Here are four questions independent financial advisors should ask before choosing a TAMP.

Equity investors are not being adequately compensated for the economic, geopolitical and financial risks they are bearing. The equity risk premium is too small.

Let’s look at the powerful feature set an advisory firm could put together from a collection of the higher-rated, low-market-share programs and solutions that I’ve collected from past surveys, many of which you may not even be aware of.

Whether foreign nations want or need tightening or easing, they are stuck with the monetary policy that the Fed decides America needs.

To foresee what crisis might be next, it is vital to understand the dollar's role in global finance and economics and the resulting role that the Fed plays in influencing global monetary policy.

There is a long history that proves ESG’s viability and more than 2,000 empirical studies that show little absolute difference in performance by adopting it as a criterion for analysis.

About 90% of this year’s S&P 500 loss was attributable to higher interest rates.

Bond yields may keep rising, but a significant driver of yields is done selling.

I look back to other periods when bonds outperformed stocks. This analysis allows us to assess specific stock traits and specific industries that over- and underperformed in those eras.

With Treasury yields around 4% and corporate bonds yields even higher, fixed income is the better alternative to stocks.

If one is watching CNBC to figure out where markets are headed, they will be better served looking to the bond market for direction.

One investment with the ability to provide current income, inflation protection, and even the potential for capital appreciation has been largely overlooked – rising dividend stocks.

In the long run, stock prices and returns are anchored by the cash flows that companies provide investors. If profits grow slower than expected, stock return projections must be recalibrated.

The leading tail-risk potential is the increased odds that high inflation remains stubborn, and the Fed continues to fight those odds aggressively.

How can we design and deliver our advice in a way that clients implement it? Enter the commitment device.

This week, Advisor Perspectives is set to host a variety of free CE webinars for financial professionals. These webinars will cover a variety of topics that are intended to help advisors gain valuable insight and education, allowing them to better meet their clients’ needs.

When the supply and demand for bonds normalize, bond investors will realize that economic, inflation and other factors warrant much lower yields.

Investor risk tolerance drives portfolio decisions, yet many financial advisors are rightly concerned about the accuracy of risk tolerance assessments. Why is it so hard? How can we get it right?

Investors increasingly want more control and customization of their portfolios. Personalized managed accounts give them the opportunity to do that.

I explore consumer staple and discretionary companies to see how they are navigating the inflation storm.

This article considers a change in behavior that would generate a price-wage spiral.

The S&P 500 could be close to 3,500 by year-end if the Fed follows through with its QT plans.

Stocks are rallying on hopes the Fed will stop increasing interest rates this fall, pivot, and start reducing them next year. Investors are blindly buying into this pivot narrative.

When it comes to a comfortable retirement, women in the US have the cards stacked against them.

How do you know what your clients are thinking in real time, as the markets jump around unpredictably, as clients go through life changes which are largely invisible to their advisor unless the clients proactively contact them?

According to MPT, following certain steps leads to the optimal portfolio for the individual’s risk and return preferences. But, like executing a perfect squat, knowing how to build the optimal portfolio is not enough.

Given the Fed's enormous impact on markets and its extremely hawkish stance due to inflation, a well-reasoned inflation forecast is imperative for investors.

The long-running active versus passive debate has become even more heated than usual during the recent stock market turmoil.

The market’s inflation concerns are taking a back seat to recession fears.

Given the stock market turmoil, a timely question is whether the U.S. Federal Reserve (the “Fed”) will act to stem the tide of losses as it has done during prior stock market declines. A bloated Fed balance sheet and historically high inflation suggest that this time the Fed will be unable to act to save the market.

Valuations help investors gauge the downside risk and upside potential in a stock or market. At the same time, assessing liquidity conditions, including technical analysis, defining short term trends help with investment timing and asset selection.

While the situations in the U.S., Europe, and Japan are different, all three are paying the price for years of fiscal and monetary tomfoolery. Using monetary policy to ensure low-interest rates encouraged unproductive debt growth. As liabilities grew faster than GDP, their ability to service debt became harder without continually having to administer lower interest rates and more QE.

Commodities can make for great trades, but they are often lousy investments.

The decision to annuitize at age 65 may be optimal in instances of extreme longevity (age 90-95+) or if there is a prolonged environment for stocks and bonds that is as bad or worse than any conditions experienced in the historical record.

The trolley car problem is a well-known ethical question that forces one to choose between two poor consequences. For the Fed, it is whether to allow inflation to fester or to force the economy into a recession.

Given the Fed's hawkish monetary policy agenda and its effect on asset prices, I thought it might be helpful to share my thoughts on Fed-based trend analysis.

I will demonstrate how financial advisors can combine behavioral finance and deep analytics to have a robust conversation with clients during financial turmoil, showing compassion and understanding on the one hand, while telling a compelling long-term story on the other hand.