In a closely watched decision, the Fed lifted its benchmark lending rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.75% to 5% at the conclusion of its March policy meeting.
Many investors believe that gold is a safe long-term investment that can be used to hedge against risk. But should you include this precious metal in your retirement portfolio?
Professional speculators aren’t convinced that the worst is over for one risky corner of the stock market despite a rousing new-year rally.
Sound policymaking has helped India modernize and achieve robust economic growth, positioning it to become an increasingly important player on the world stage.
When it comes to the clients they serve, advisors need to think about the now and the new, not the next, and step up their offerings in key areas.
These weekly letters, of which I’ve now written well over 1,000 (plus 7 books and multiple papers and articles), are generally about two broad topics: the economy and the financial markets. While related, these aren’t the same. Good news for one can be (and often is) bad news for the other.
Once-hated world stocks, bonds laced with interest-rate risk and even deadbeat crypto coins have just closed out a big new-year rally.
Ray Dalio, founder of the world’s largest hedge fund, has one.
The process by which advisors select a TAMP is the latest illustration of fiduciary failure, and the SEC has responded with ominous rulemaking that will have questionable value to our profession.
Our 2022 ESG manager survey findings reinforced our belief that the integration of environmental, social and governance (ESG) factors into investment processes is here to stay.
2022 wasn’t the easiest of years to handle for investors.
I’m looking over my previous “trends” article, published at this time a year ago, and some of my ”fearless predictions” were outlandish then but now seem ordinary. That means I did something right.
The health of borrowers is the key concern for all of finance in the coming year.
Central banks are incurring losses.
Earlier this year, we added “Globalisation 2.0” to our list of megatrends – trends that are virtually set in stone and so all-encompassing that they will have a profound effect on financial markets in the years to come.
US retailers discounted heavily on Black Friday to clear out bloated inventories but customers responded with only modest traffic, leaving profitability in doubt for many chains.
The following is a loose collection of random thoughts and observations on the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Rather than a coherent article, I offer some insights that have emerged as the war has dragged on.
A hybrid model that combines sophisticated digital capabilities with human expertise and advice is not just today’s reality but will be a key differentiator for winning customer relationships.
China has a powerful weapon in its rare-earth dominance.
The Fed continues to raise interest rates to try and fix the economy and bring down inflation.
Elon Musk has wasted no time in showing the world that Twitter Inc.’s new sheriff is in town — or rather its “chief twit” is. That was his new Twitter bio last week when he walked into the company’s San Francisco headquarters holding a sink, a gag prop for a tweet.
The Harvard Business School’s Michael Porter is the leading authority on industry structure and competitiveness. His framework shows how RIAs should think strategically about the current state and future evolution of their industry.
I’ll be the first to say that the RIA model is not for everyone.
Internal priorities and external circumstances have brought China's growth to an inflection point.
Macro uncertainties and tightening financial conditions are pressuring the real estate investment market. Tim Wang, Head of Investment Research for Clarion Partners, discusses the challenges and opportunities in this current environment.
After a strong rebound from the pandemic in 2021, it’s been all downhill for the global economy this year. Economic activity is being hindered as policymakers cope with the hottest inflation in decades, impairments from the Ukraine war, and China’s prolonged lockdowns. Recession fears are starting to come true.
UK Prime Minister Liz Truss fired Chancellor of the Exchequer Kwasi Kwarteng and replaced him with former Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt as she prepared to make a humiliating U-turn on parts of her economic plan.
Democracy is under attack, yet many Americans fail to see the threat, according to Seth Klarman. Leadership must come from the business community to respond to this challenge.
Elon Musk is reviving his original $54.20 takeover bid for Twitter Inc., perhaps because he doesn’t want to go through a legal process that divulges more embarrassing text messages.
Introverted financial advisors can stand out from the competition. Here are three marketing strategies to help you play to your strengths as an introvert.
Just 18.5% of homes in Florida counties that were told to evacuate have coverage through the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP), which is administered by FEMA. Most regular homeowners’ insurance policies don’t cover flood damage, which is why Congress created the NFIP in 1968. But at an average cost of $995 a year, according to Forbes, the insurance may be out of reach to many households.
It’s a binary world. To an extreme extent, opinions on the market are divided, and they are split on one key issue: Will the Fed have to “pivot” toward easier monetary policy in the next few months, or won’t it?
Here are the 10 best books I read from September 2021 through August 2022.
Thanks to reading Spencer Jakab’s book, The Revolution That Wasn't, we've been thinking about what it is like to be in a short position when overwhelming demand affects prices.
Small business sales are the lifeblood of the economy.
Market veterans will tell you there are no shortcuts in investing
We know that the US economy is currently weak, but the real economy is really weak, and the Federal Reserve’s commitment to precipitate a recession to curb high inflation will make this reality obvious to seemingly oblivious investors.
“We need to make these chips here in America to bring down everyday costs and create jobs,” said Biden...
Everyone’s inflation experience is unique. We all have our particular spending patterns, so our experience will feel worse if inflation is more severe in the goods and services we normally buy. Or we might not notice it as much as others do.
We encounter plenty of obstacles as financial planners. And the biggest of all are the barriers thrown up by our clients.
It can be daunting to get back on track once you’ve fallen behind.
A whistle-blower’s complaint alleging Twitter Inc. ignored a rash of spam and bot accounts could help Elon Musk in his effort to walk away from a $44 billion buyout of the social-media platform, legal experts say.
President Joe Biden’s signing of the Inflation Reduction Act on Tuesday caps nearly two years of efforts to pass sweeping climate legislation. But the real work is just getting started.
The recent Democratic bill on climate and taxes increases the funding for the Internal Revenue Service by an additional $80 billion over 10 years, with the purpose of collecting more revenue by enforcing existing tax laws.
Recent revisions to oil demand forecasts aren’t as bullish as they might appear. Don’t get too excited about prices going up just yet.
Why is persuasion so difficult?
The one place that asset managers can show a measurable commitment to ESG – and appeal to investors who want to drive changes in corporate behavior and responsibility – is by providing a pass-through proxy voting experience.
Basic economics says that companies can only set prices at a level where the current supply will meet demand. Moreover, looking at prices in a vacuum is also very misleading because it doesn’t account for changes in the firm’s input or operating costs.
Imagine: Elon Musk, known for his delight in defying authority, is ordered to move ahead with his $44 billion purchase of Twitter Inc. -- and refuses.
How many times have you heard that the US dollar will collapse because of Fed and fiscal policy?
The Supreme Court’s decisions on abortion and gun safety reinforced how ideology polarizes politics and prevents civil discussion and progress. Market ideology has also polarized discussion and harmed advice standards.
In what has become one of the worst years on record for the stock market, with the S&P 500 Index down 20%, the Solactive Roundhill Meme Index is down much more, tumbling in excess of 50%.
Mutual fund managers evaluate many characteristics of potential investment opportunities.
It took me a long, long time to write The End of Indexing.
Someone once said, “Better than being smart is knowing who is!”
Today we’ll look at some evidence this period could even be worse than the 1970s. Then we’ll read the mea culpa regrets of someone who had a big part in that drama.
The one speed bump advisors keep tripping over is that, well, people are funny about their money.
Here’s how financial marketers can repurpose virtual meetings and video content.
Several avenues for diversifying cryptocurrency portfolios exist. Investors should weigh the costs and benefits of each of the following three methods.
Howard Marks’s latest memo explores recurring investment themes to contextualize the current market correction and the bull market that preceded it. He discusses the role played by financial innovations like SPACs and cryptocurrencies and why he believes psychology, not fundamentals, primarily drives investment cycles – and likely always will.
In January Goldman Sachs projected that the FOMC would increase the federal funds rate at every other meeting (each meeting is 6 weeks apart) starting with the March meeting.
It looks like the economy will grow for a while, just not very fast. And we simply don’t know what will happen when the Federal Reserve tightens in the face of a slowing economy.
Russia’s blockade of Ukraine’s ports is a “declaration of war” that threatens to trigger mass migration and a global food crisis, a United Nations official said, adding to the dire warnings on the opening day of the World Economic Forum in Davos.
Dividend Growth Stocks Dividend growth stocks are one of the more favored classes of stocks that investors want to hear about.
The major market indices finished mixed this week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.63%. The S&P 500 Stock Index rose 0.40%, while the Nasdaq Composite fell 1.02%. The Russell 2000 small capitalization index lost 0.28% this week.
The push-and-pull between centralization and decentralization is the great contest of our times. And decentralization is winning out.
Recession warnings are clearly on the rise. Much of the initial media fervor focuses on the inversion of the yield curve.
I require clients to send me their most recent tax returns. Here are the insights I learn and how it provides a ton of value to clients.
The war in Ukraine has contributed to inflation in the short term, but there’s much more to the story, which began way before Russia invaded its neighbor.
I hope the discomfort and pain you experience reading this piece are but a small fraction of what I experienced writing it. I keep reminding myself that most of our problems today are first-world problems that are generally trivial and insignificant compared to what people in Ukraine are going through.
Europeans enduring an unseasonal April cold snap may be forgiven for thinking winter is back. But for the natural gas market, summer has arrived. April 1 marked the start of a new year in the energy calendar, moving the focus to injecting enough gas into storage during the coming low-demand months in preparation for next winter. It’s a race Europe cannot afford to lose, but one it will struggle to win following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine is a shock to the existing world order. From an economic perspective, the initial impact of the war is rising inflation given the importance of Russia and Ukraine in the supply of commodities to the world.
Geopolitical upheaval and rapid inflation have driven volatility and, with that, questions from clients about whether to reposition portfolios defensively. In my wide-ranging conversation with Harold Evensky, he explained how he responds to fears that this time is different.
Oil fluctuated as investors weighed threats to supplies from the month-old war in Ukraine, with President Joe Biden set to address the crisis on a key trip to Europe that may see more sanctions imposed on Russia.
In answer to this question, yes, it appears we are very much amidst a bear market rally. In fact, as I will endeavor to articulate below, it appears said rally could extend further over the coming weeks.
Call them brazen, call them naïve, but stock investors are giving no sign of being daunted by the hottest inflation in decades or the accompanying surge in bond yields. Their boldness has sent analysts in search of ways to explain how the S&P 500 Index has managed to rally in five of the last six sessions, even as the Federal Reserve promises higher rates while war rages in Europe and Treasury rates see the biggest two-day jump in two years.
Andy Rothman, Matthews Asia Investment Strategist, and Dr. Bobo Lo, independent analyst and non-resident Fellow with the Lowy Institute, discuss how the Russian invasion of Ukraine may affect China’s relationship with the U.S. and Europe.
In economics, “Guns or Butter” compares the impact of government spending on defense and non-defense categories. The Russia invasion of Ukraine has implications for investors and categories associated with defense, energy and industrials. Sectors deemed in the national interest should benefit from better appropriation, less regulation and bipartisan support.
Javelin and Stinger missiles, Molotov cocktails and now…crypto war bonds. To support its life-or-death struggle against Russia, Ukraine is seeking to tap the rapidly expanding potential of cryptocurrencies. If it succeeds, other nations facing dire circumstances may follow.
Jasmin and Ryan recently exchanged ideas about trading apps and new software that can help educate investors about key investment principles.
Unlike fiat currency, Bitcoin is decentralized and cannot be controlled by any central bank or politician, making it a powerful peer-to-peer payment network. Why else are some lawmakers and bureaucrats so eager to regulate or outright ban it?
How much inflation is okay? People have different answers. I think it should be very low, but definitely positive to forestall deflation. Whatever your ideal may be, there’s a range of possibilities that would at least satisfy you. Political scientists call this range the “Overton Window,” a hypothetical box around the limits of acceptable policy. Anything outside the box is, by definition, unacceptable.
Cryptocurrency exchanges and other financial services companies were stars amid a Super Bowl ad blitz that featured the return of many longtime sponsors and an overall more celebratory mood than last year.
Europe’s stricter environmental, social and governance rules might be forcing companies in more controversial sectors to look across the Atlantic for funding.
UBS made a huge investment in acquiring the robo-advisor Wealthfront. But neither this investment nor any other robo pose a threat to traditional financial advice.
We’ll review what may be the most compelling bear case I’ve seen in a long time, along with some other unpleasant data. Then we’ll look at some equally compelling reasons those views may be wrong.
A “boatload” of news this week suggests that the shipping industry continues to look very attractive from an investing point of view. Global cargo carriers are estimated to have recorded $150 billion in profits in 2021, the first time they’ve collectively reached that figure in a single year.
While no one knows what 2022 holds in store for investors, my concern is that it should not foster the same optimism as 2021.
Bob Huebscher’s mother passed away on December 23, 2021.
You might think that the IPO of electric-truck wunderkind Rivian Automotive Inc. — with its valuation soaring past $100 billion on zero revenue — perfectly captured the madness in autos in 2021.
Robo Advisors
March Fed Rate Hike: Sometimes the Moments That Challenge Us the Most Define Us
In a closely watched decision, the Fed lifted its benchmark lending rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.75% to 5% at the conclusion of its March policy meeting.
Should You Invest in Gold for Retirement?
Many investors believe that gold is a safe long-term investment that can be used to hedge against risk. But should you include this precious metal in your retirement portfolio?
Hedge Funds Again Shorting Risky Tech After Rally Forced Unwind
Professional speculators aren’t convinced that the worst is over for one risky corner of the stock market despite a rousing new-year rally.
India at a Crossroads
Sound policymaking has helped India modernize and achieve robust economic growth, positioning it to become an increasingly important player on the world stage.
Prepare to Meet the New Generation of Clients
When it comes to the clients they serve, advisors need to think about the now and the new, not the next, and step up their offerings in key areas.
A Muddle-Through Market, for Now
These weekly letters, of which I’ve now written well over 1,000 (plus 7 books and multiple papers and articles), are generally about two broad topics: the economy and the financial markets. While related, these aren’t the same. Good news for one can be (and often is) bad news for the other.
Wall Street's Feel-Good Start to 2023 Sets Up Perilous Fed Day
Once-hated world stocks, bonds laced with interest-rate risk and even deadbeat crypto coins have just closed out a big new-year rally.
A Powerful New Tool Transforms How Billionaires Give Fortunes Away
Ray Dalio, founder of the world’s largest hedge fund, has one.
The SEC Outsourcing Rule and Our Failure as Fiduciaries
The process by which advisors select a TAMP is the latest illustration of fiduciary failure, and the SEC has responded with ominous rulemaking that will have questionable value to our profession.
2022 ESG Survey Deep Dive: Active Ownership Review
Our 2022 ESG manager survey findings reinforced our belief that the integration of environmental, social and governance (ESG) factors into investment processes is here to stay.
The R Year
2022 wasn’t the easiest of years to handle for investors.
The Trends That Will Shape the Advisory Profession in 2023
I’m looking over my previous “trends” article, published at this time a year ago, and some of my ”fearless predictions” were outlandish then but now seem ordinary. That means I did something right.
Big Banks Will Show Fintech Who’s the Big Boss
The health of borrowers is the key concern for all of finance in the coming year.
QE Underwater
Central banks are incurring losses.
Globalisation 2.0 in the Context of Putin
Earlier this year, we added “Globalisation 2.0” to our list of megatrends – trends that are virtually set in stone and so all-encompassing that they will have a profound effect on financial markets in the years to come.
US Shoppers Kick Off Holiday Season With a Muted Black Friday
US retailers discounted heavily on Black Friday to clear out bloated inventories but customers responded with only modest traffic, leaving profitability in doubt for many chains.
Random Thoughts on the Russian War in Ukraine (Hint: It’s Not Going Well for Russia)
The following is a loose collection of random thoughts and observations on the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Rather than a coherent article, I offer some insights that have emerged as the war has dragged on.
Empowering Advisors with a Hybrid Approach
A hybrid model that combines sophisticated digital capabilities with human expertise and advice is not just today’s reality but will be a key differentiator for winning customer relationships.
America’s Unhealthy Dependence on China for Rare-Earth Metals
China has a powerful weapon in its rare-earth dominance.
The Fed Has a Hammer, and You’re a Nail
The Fed continues to raise interest rates to try and fix the economy and bring down inflation.
Chief Twit Elon Musk Makes a Mostly Disastrous Start
Elon Musk has wasted no time in showing the world that Twitter Inc.’s new sheriff is in town — or rather its “chief twit” is. That was his new Twitter bio last week when he walked into the company’s San Francisco headquarters holding a sink, a gag prop for a tweet.
The Five Competitive Forces Affecting RIA Profitability
The Harvard Business School’s Michael Porter is the leading authority on industry structure and competitiveness. His framework shows how RIAs should think strategically about the current state and future evolution of their industry.
Ask Brad: The Two Big Reasons Advisors Don’t Transition to the RIA Model
I’ll be the first to say that the RIA model is not for everyone.
A Deep Dive Into The Chinese Economy
Internal priorities and external circumstances have brought China's growth to an inflection point.
Real Estate Investment Opportunities Amid Macro Uncertainties
Macro uncertainties and tightening financial conditions are pressuring the real estate investment market. Tim Wang, Head of Investment Research for Clarion Partners, discusses the challenges and opportunities in this current environment.
Global Economic Outlook: Doom and Gloom
After a strong rebound from the pandemic in 2021, it’s been all downhill for the global economy this year. Economic activity is being hindered as policymakers cope with the hottest inflation in decades, impairments from the Ukraine war, and China’s prolonged lockdowns. Recession fears are starting to come true.
Hunt Replaces Kwarteng as Liz Truss Plans Humiliating U-Turn
UK Prime Minister Liz Truss fired Chancellor of the Exchequer Kwasi Kwarteng and replaced him with former Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt as she prepared to make a humiliating U-turn on parts of her economic plan.
Seth Klarman and the Threat to American Democracy
Democracy is under attack, yet many Americans fail to see the threat, according to Seth Klarman. Leadership must come from the business community to respond to this challenge.
Musk’s Twitter Will Reel From Culture Shock
Elon Musk is reviving his original $54.20 takeover bid for Twitter Inc., perhaps because he doesn’t want to go through a legal process that divulges more embarrassing text messages.
Marketing Strategies for the Introverted Financial Advisor
Introverted financial advisors can stand out from the competition. Here are three marketing strategies to help you play to your strengths as an introvert.
Hurricane Ian Highlights the Importance of Flood Insurance, a Hedge on Your Investment
Just 18.5% of homes in Florida counties that were told to evacuate have coverage through the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP), which is administered by FEMA. Most regular homeowners’ insurance policies don’t cover flood damage, which is why Congress created the NFIP in 1968. But at an average cost of $995 a year, according to Forbes, the insurance may be out of reach to many households.
As Binary As It Gets: Bulls, Bears and the Pivot
It’s a binary world. To an extreme extent, opinions on the market are divided, and they are split on one key issue: Will the Fed have to “pivot” toward easier monetary policy in the next few months, or won’t it?
The 10 Best Non-Fiction Books I Read This Year
Here are the 10 best books I read from September 2021 through August 2022.
The Strategic Squeeze
Thanks to reading Spencer Jakab’s book, The Revolution That Wasn't, we've been thinking about what it is like to be in a short position when overwhelming demand affects prices.
Small Business Sales And The Running Of The Bull
Small business sales are the lifeblood of the economy.
I Use This Stock-picking Shortcut Every Single Day
Market veterans will tell you there are no shortcuts in investing
Wall Street Is in Denial Over the Economy
We know that the US economy is currently weak, but the real economy is really weak, and the Federal Reserve’s commitment to precipitate a recession to curb high inflation will make this reality obvious to seemingly oblivious investors.
Biden Signs Chips Bill, Unleashing Funding for US Production
“We need to make these chips here in America to bring down everyday costs and create jobs,” said Biden...
Your Inflation May Vary
Everyone’s inflation experience is unique. We all have our particular spending patterns, so our experience will feel worse if inflation is more severe in the goods and services we normally buy. Or we might not notice it as much as others do.
How to Respond to Frustrated and Angry Clients
We encounter plenty of obstacles as financial planners. And the biggest of all are the barriers thrown up by our clients.
How to Catch Up on Retirement Savings at Any Age
It can be daunting to get back on track once you’ve fallen behind.
Musk Gets a Potential Boost With Twitter Whistle-Blower’s Claims
A whistle-blower’s complaint alleging Twitter Inc. ignored a rash of spam and bot accounts could help Elon Musk in his effort to walk away from a $44 billion buyout of the social-media platform, legal experts say.
Biden Signed the Climate Law. Now the Hard Slog Begins.
President Joe Biden’s signing of the Inflation Reduction Act on Tuesday caps nearly two years of efforts to pass sweeping climate legislation. But the real work is just getting started.
The IRS Has Problems That $80 Billion Won't Solve
The recent Democratic bill on climate and taxes increases the funding for the Internal Revenue Service by an additional $80 billion over 10 years, with the purpose of collecting more revenue by enforcing existing tax laws.
Oil Demand Forecasts Aren't as Bullish as They Seem
Recent revisions to oil demand forecasts aren’t as bullish as they might appear. Don’t get too excited about prices going up just yet.
A Radically Different Approach to Changing Minds
Why is persuasion so difficult?
In ESG Measurement, the Proxy Vote Wins
The one place that asset managers can show a measurable commitment to ESG – and appeal to investors who want to drive changes in corporate behavior and responsibility – is by providing a pass-through proxy voting experience.
Giant Corporations Are Causing Inflation?
Basic economics says that companies can only set prices at a level where the current supply will meet demand. Moreover, looking at prices in a vacuum is also very misleading because it doesn’t account for changes in the firm’s input or operating costs.
What If Musk Is Ordered to Do Twitter Deal and He Just Says No?
Imagine: Elon Musk, known for his delight in defying authority, is ordered to move ahead with his $44 billion purchase of Twitter Inc. -- and refuses.
Dollar Remains World Reserve Currency
How many times have you heard that the US dollar will collapse because of Fed and fiscal policy?
Polarization and the State of Advice
The Supreme Court’s decisions on abortion and gun safety reinforced how ideology polarizes politics and prevents civil discussion and progress. Market ideology has also polarized discussion and harmed advice standards.
The Redditors Should Know When They Are Conquered
In what has become one of the worst years on record for the stock market, with the S&P 500 Index down 20%, the Solactive Roundhill Meme Index is down much more, tumbling in excess of 50%.
Identifying Strong Business Models: How Moats Protect Companies from Competition
Mutual fund managers evaluate many characteristics of potential investment opportunities.
The End of Indexing
It took me a long, long time to write The End of Indexing.
Buffett, Jones and Hamm: An Oil Wisdom Trifecta
Someone once said, “Better than being smart is knowing who is!”
Gradually Worse
Today we’ll look at some evidence this period could even be worse than the 1970s. Then we’ll read the mea culpa regrets of someone who had a big part in that drama.
Dr. Cole Cash and the Next Generation
The one speed bump advisors keep tripping over is that, well, people are funny about their money.
The Next Generation of Video Marketing
Here’s how financial marketers can repurpose virtual meetings and video content.
How to Build a Diversified Crypto Allocation
Several avenues for diversifying cryptocurrency portfolios exist. Investors should weigh the costs and benefits of each of the following three methods.
Bull Market Rhymes
Howard Marks’s latest memo explores recurring investment themes to contextualize the current market correction and the bull market that preceded it. He discusses the role played by financial innovations like SPACs and cryptocurrencies and why he believes psychology, not fundamentals, primarily drives investment cycles – and likely always will.
FOMC Inflation Test Coming
In January Goldman Sachs projected that the FOMC would increase the federal funds rate at every other meeting (each meeting is 6 weeks apart) starting with the March meeting.
Rock and a Hard Place
It looks like the economy will grow for a while, just not very fast. And we simply don’t know what will happen when the Federal Reserve tightens in the face of a slowing economy.
Russian Port Sieges ‘Declaration of War,’ UN Says
Russia’s blockade of Ukraine’s ports is a “declaration of war” that threatens to trigger mass migration and a global food crisis, a United Nations official said, adding to the dire warnings on the opening day of the World Economic Forum in Davos.
41 Dividend Growth Stocks Requested
Dividend Growth Stocks Dividend growth stocks are one of the more favored classes of stocks that investors want to hear about.
OnlyFans Offers a Lesson for Protesting Historically High Home Appraisals
The major market indices finished mixed this week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.63%. The S&P 500 Stock Index rose 0.40%, while the Nasdaq Composite fell 1.02%. The Russell 2000 small capitalization index lost 0.28% this week.
Decentralization Is Winning the War Against Centralization
The push-and-pull between centralization and decentralization is the great contest of our times. And decentralization is winning out.
Recession Warnings Rise, Limiting Fed’s Inflation Fight
Recession warnings are clearly on the rise. Much of the initial media fervor focuses on the inversion of the yield curve.
How to Add Value by Reviewing Clients’ Tax Returns
I require clients to send me their most recent tax returns. Here are the insights I learn and how it provides a ton of value to clients.
The “Putin Price Hike” Is Fake News
The war in Ukraine has contributed to inflation in the short term, but there’s much more to the story, which began way before Russia invaded its neighbor.
War in Ukraine: Part 4 – Are There Neo-Nazis in Ukraine?
I hope the discomfort and pain you experience reading this piece are but a small fraction of what I experienced writing it. I keep reminding myself that most of our problems today are first-world problems that are generally trivial and insignificant compared to what people in Ukraine are going through.
Europe’s Hypocritical Gas Policy Isn’t Sustainable
Europeans enduring an unseasonal April cold snap may be forgiven for thinking winter is back. But for the natural gas market, summer has arrived. April 1 marked the start of a new year in the energy calendar, moving the focus to injecting enough gas into storage during the coming low-demand months in preparation for next winter. It’s a race Europe cannot afford to lose, but one it will struggle to win following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
The Case For EM In A Multipolar World
The Russian invasion of Ukraine is a shock to the existing world order. From an economic perspective, the initial impact of the war is rising inflation given the importance of Russia and Ukraine in the supply of commodities to the world.
Harold Evensky: Is This Time Different?
Geopolitical upheaval and rapid inflation have driven volatility and, with that, questions from clients about whether to reposition portfolios defensively. In my wide-ranging conversation with Harold Evensky, he explained how he responds to fears that this time is different.
Oil Swings as Biden, Allies Gather to Step Up Pressure on Moscow
Oil fluctuated as investors weighed threats to supplies from the month-old war in Ukraine, with President Joe Biden set to address the crisis on a key trip to Europe that may see more sanctions imposed on Russia.
Does This Rally Have Legs?
In answer to this question, yes, it appears we are very much amidst a bear market rally. In fact, as I will endeavor to articulate below, it appears said rally could extend further over the coming weeks.
Stocks as Inflation Hedge Is New Catch-All Narrative for Market Rally
Call them brazen, call them naïve, but stock investors are giving no sign of being daunted by the hottest inflation in decades or the accompanying surge in bond yields. Their boldness has sent analysts in search of ways to explain how the S&P 500 Index has managed to rally in five of the last six sessions, even as the Federal Reserve promises higher rates while war rages in Europe and Treasury rates see the biggest two-day jump in two years.
Russia, Ukraine and China’s Western Ties
Andy Rothman, Matthews Asia Investment Strategist, and Dr. Bobo Lo, independent analyst and non-resident Fellow with the Lowy Institute, discuss how the Russian invasion of Ukraine may affect China’s relationship with the U.S. and Europe.
The Debate Over Guns or Butter Returns
In economics, “Guns or Butter” compares the impact of government spending on defense and non-defense categories. The Russia invasion of Ukraine has implications for investors and categories associated with defense, energy and industrials. Sectors deemed in the national interest should benefit from better appropriation, less regulation and bipartisan support.
Ukraine Puts a Crypto Twist on War Bonds. It Can Do More.
Javelin and Stinger missiles, Molotov cocktails and now…crypto war bonds. To support its life-or-death struggle against Russia, Ukraine is seeking to tap the rapidly expanding potential of cryptocurrencies. If it succeeds, other nations facing dire circumstances may follow.
Can Your Digital Platform Withstand Regulator Scrutiny?
Jasmin and Ryan recently exchanged ideas about trading apps and new software that can help educate investors about key investment principles.
The Crackdown on Canadian Truckers Shines a Spotlight on Bitcoin and Gold
Unlike fiat currency, Bitcoin is decentralized and cannot be controlled by any central bank or politician, making it a powerful peer-to-peer payment network. Why else are some lawmakers and bureaucrats so eager to regulate or outright ban it?
Inflation Thoughts
How much inflation is okay? People have different answers. I think it should be very low, but definitely positive to forestall deflation. Whatever your ideal may be, there’s a range of possibilities that would at least satisfy you. Political scientists call this range the “Overton Window,” a hypothetical box around the limits of acceptable policy. Anything outside the box is, by definition, unacceptable.
Financial Spots Are Stars in First-Ever Crypto Super Bowl
Cryptocurrency exchanges and other financial services companies were stars amid a Super Bowl ad blitz that featured the return of many longtime sponsors and an overall more celebratory mood than last year.
Europe’s ESG Drive to Push Vice Firms to Raise Money in U.S.
Europe’s stricter environmental, social and governance rules might be forcing companies in more controversial sectors to look across the Atlantic for funding.
2022: Another Year We Needn't Worry About the Robos
UBS made a huge investment in acquiring the robo-advisor Wealthfront. But neither this investment nor any other robo pose a threat to traditional financial advice.
So Goes the Year?
We’ll review what may be the most compelling bear case I’ve seen in a long time, along with some other unpleasant data. Then we’ll look at some equally compelling reasons those views may be wrong.
The Shipping Industry Has Never Been So Profitable as It Is Now
A “boatload” of news this week suggests that the shipping industry continues to look very attractive from an investing point of view. Global cargo carriers are estimated to have recorded $150 billion in profits in 2021, the first time they’ve collectively reached that figure in a single year.
The 2022 Outlook Part 1 - Tailwinds Shift to Headwinds
While no one knows what 2022 holds in store for investors, my concern is that it should not foster the same optimism as 2021.
Lucille Pion Huebscher (July 28, 1927 - December 23, 2021)
Bob Huebscher’s mother passed away on December 23, 2021.
Cars Are Suddenly Worth $3 Trillion, And It’s Not All Tesla
You might think that the IPO of electric-truck wunderkind Rivian Automotive Inc. — with its valuation soaring past $100 billion on zero revenue — perfectly captured the madness in autos in 2021.