Join the experts at Envestnet and VettaFi on April 18th for a discussion of how to make “the Intelligent Financial Life” a reality for your clients.
Remember when banks were small? Those old enough to have a bank account in the 1970s should. Back then, most people did their banking with a locally owned institution, often the First National Bank of (Your Town).
Gold appears to be well-positioned for a strong pump that could carry it to new all-time high prices in 2023—and beyond. As you know, I’ve been following and writing about the precious metal market for a very long time, and I see a number of unique catalysts at the moment that could contribute to higher gold prices.
In many ways, the process of filling out a bracket is like investing. It requires balancing risk and reward, while maintaining discipline.
Worries about the health of the overall banking system have led to a drawdown in deposits, with investors yanking nearly $100 billion in deposits from U.S. banks during the week that ended March 15. What’s more, there are fears that the stresses in the banking sector could be the start of the next financial crisis.
Bitcoin’s surprising fast exit from its “crypto winter” has once again put the notoriously volatile digital currency atop the leader-board in the first quarter for being the best-performing asset class by a wide margin.
Stocks built on overnight gains and Treasury yields inched lower following today's relatively benign February PCE inflation data.
Valid until the market close on April 30, 2023.
The S&P 500 closed March with a monthly gain of 3.51%, after a loss of 2.61% in February. At this point, after close on the last day of the month, two of five Ivy portfolio ETFs — Vanguard Real Estate ETF (VNQ) and Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund (DBC) — are signaling "cash," a decrease from last month's final triple "cash" signal.
The benchmark S&P 500 Index is wrapping up its second straight quarterly gain, rising 5.50% through Thursday and adding to the 7.08% surge in the final three months of 2022.
Recession indicators are ringing loudly.
Up until recently, crude oil inventories saw continued build after build, suggesting the real time supply and demand dynamics in the market have been tilted toward the bearish side of the ledger.
It’s been—to put it mildly—an interesting time in the US Treasury market.
The investment landscape is pockmarked by intractable statistics that continue to impose strategic and psychological barriers to the short term potential of portfolio alpha.
Personal income (excluding transfer receipts) in February rose 0.3% and is up 6.6% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) MoM was up 0.03% and was up 1.6% year-over-year.
The March final report for the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index came in at 62.0, down 5.0 (-7.5%) from the February final. This morning's reading was the first monthly decline in the last four months and came in below the Investing.com forecast of 63.2. Since its beginning in 1978, consumer sentiment is 27.3% below its average reading (arithmetic mean) and 26.4% below its geometric mean.
The latest Chicago Purchasing Manager's Index, or the Chicago Business Barometer, shifted up to 43.8 in March from 43.6 in February, marking the seventh straight month in contraction territory. This reading comes in above the Investing.com forecast of 43.4.
With the release of this morning's report on February's personal incomes and outlays, we can now take a closer look at "real" disposable personal income per capita. At two decimal places, the nominal 0.43% month-over-month change in disposable income comes to 0.16% when we adjust for inflation. This is a steep decline from last month's 2.00% nominal and 1.42% real change. The year-over-year metrics are 7.90% nominal and 2.76% real.
Fixed income spreads have widened across sectors over the past few months.
What are the implications of the ongoing volatility in the banking sector, and what does it mean for markets in Europe and globally?
The accompanying chart is a way to visualize real GDP change since 2007 and uses stacked column chart to segment the four major components of GDP with a dashed line overlay to show the sum of the four, which is real GDP itself. Here is the latest overview from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Not all stocks are the same, and not all stocks serves the investor’s needs.
“QE” or “Quantitative Easing” has been the bull’s “siren song” of the last decade, but will “Not QE” be the same?
US equity capital markets are having the slowest start to a year since 2009, and dealmakers fear a rebound is nowhere near.
Elon Musk and an array of public figures have signed their names to an open letter that went viral this week, calling for a six-month pause on training language models more powerful than GPT-4, the technology underpinning ChatGPT.
In the face of high and persistent inflation, recession risks, and now a looming insolvency crisis in the financial sector, central banks like the US Federal Reserve are facing a trilemma.
There has been surprisingly little worry reported by advisors and readers in the past couple of weeks.
We’ve been watching slumps ripple through various parts of the economy over the past 18 months: technology startups and stocks, regional banks and growing concern about commercial real estate. Yet we’re still waiting for the wider labor market to feel the downturn.
This morning's seasonally adjusted 198K new claims, up 7K from the previous week's revised figure, came in above the Investing.com forecast of 191K.
Charitable planning is an important topic to discuss with your clients, especially if they’re facing extraordinary taxable events this year. You can add value to your clients by sharing these tax-smart giving strategies for 2023.
The rise of remote work during the pandemic has cut demand for office space and left some American downtowns feeling like ghost towns. As a result, there’s been much talk of converting downtown offices into apartments. This could not only bail out owners of suddenly less-valuable commercial real estate...
There are many marketing initiatives you can implement on your own that that will likely work. Here are some suggestions.
The Senate Banking Committee held a hearing to investigate the collapse of Signature Bank (SBNY) and Silicon Valley Bank (SIVB/SIVBQ) that brought to discussion possible changes for the entire banking system.
The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) released the latest monthly data for its pending home sales index. According to the NAR, "Pending home sales grew in February for the third consecutive month."
The failures of Silvergate Bank, Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, and the current struggles of First Republic and Pacific West Bank have seen bank deposits flee to the perceived safety of large banks.
VICI Properties Inc. (VICI) from their website: “VICI Properties Inc. is one of the country’s largest owners of gaming, hospitality, and entertainment destinations.
A study, reported in the Harvard Business Review, claimed that likability was not important to the sales process.
The 2023 T3/Inside Information Software Survey is now available. It’s the best guide to the 300+ fintech solutions in the marketplace, and a good buyer’s guide for advisory firms that are looking for additions or enhancements to their tech stack.
With this morning's release of the January S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index, we learned that seasonally adjusted home prices for the benchmark 20-city index saw a 0.4% decrease month-over-month (MoM), higher than the Investing.com forecast of -0.5%, and a 2.6% increase year-over-year (YoY). After adjusting for inflation, the MoM was reduced to -1.1% and the YoY was reduced to -4.8%.
In hindsight, it was obvious it wouldn’t last. Low interest rates — the result of shifts in the global economy, economic stability, low inflation and monetary policy — couldn’t stay at zero forever.
A year into its fight against inflation, the Federal Reserve could — just maybe — be done raising its policy rate. History shows that monetary policy pauses mark great buying opportunities for US stocks, but there are several key caveats to bear in mind this time.
For millions of borrowers, student loan forgiveness will mean the difference between significant relief and ongoing payments. If you’re among them, the question is… what next?
As of March 27, the prices of regular and premium gas were unchanged from last week. According to GasBuddy.com, Hawaii has the highest average price for regular at $4.78 and Mississippi has the cheapest at $2.96. The WTIC end-of-day spot price for crude oil closed at $72.81 and is up 7.4% from last week.
Predicting spot exchanges is tricky, but there are still ways of adding value in currency markets, including through a disciplined approach we call currency factor investing.
The demise of a major bank illustrates the global tensions in the financial sector.
Doug Drabik discusses fixed income market conditions and offers insight for bond investors.
Beyond the near-term turmoil, there may need to be a re-evaluation of the regional banking model in the United States, according to a recent panel hosted by Stephen Dover, Head of Franklin Templeton Institute.
The Conference Board released its Consumer Confidence Index ® this morning, with the headline number coming in at 104.2, an increase of 0.8 from the upwardly revised final reading of 103.4 in February. This month's reading is better than the Investing.com forecast of 101.0.
As we discussed last week in Looking to the Futures, natural gas prices have been plagued by the perfect storm of lower demand and higher production throughout the withdrawal season.
The Federal Reserve’s balance sheet grew by $394B in the past two weeks.
The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) has released its U.S. house price index (HPI) for January. U.S. house prices increased by 0.2% from the previous month. Year-over-year the index is up 5.3% on a non-seasonally adjusted nominal basis. After adjusting for inflation and seasonality, the real index is down 0.2% in January and down 0.3% year-over-year (seasonally adjusted).
Ignore short-term market moves and volatility. The biggest investment returns are driven by a handful of outliers in the long run. Growth investing is for patient capital seeking long runways for companies that will ultimately generate outsized returns for investors. Baillie Gifford is uniquely positioned as a global asset manager that is entirely owned by a private partnership. My guest today, Stuart Dunbar, has identified a few technologies that will be important in driving growth in sectors where we will see transformation in the years to come.
Six of eight indexes on our world watch list posted gains through March 27, 2023. France's CAC 40 finished in the top spot with a YTD gain of 9.34%. Germany's DAXK finished second with a YTD gain of 8.33%, and Tokyo's Nikkei 225 moved to third with a YTD gain of 5.30%. India's BSE SENSEX finished last with a loss of 5.24% YTD.
The Federal Reserve raised short-term interest rates by another quarter point on Wednesday.
Many have questioned the importance of the recent bank failures.
The economic signals and a host of geopolitical risks confronting investors suggest that 2023 could be as challenging as 20022 for both stocks and bonds.
Should investors build their own portfolios of bonds, or buy shares of bond funds? Is there an economic difference or just one of appearance? Are directly held bonds safer because they mature, and you get your money back? How should one decide?
Annie Duke, once one of the best female poker players in the world, helped me understand why people work longer than they need to. This got me thinking about the decumulation problem more broadly and planning to live to age 100.
The Dallas Fed released its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (TMOS) for March. The latest general business activity index came in at -15.7, down 2.2 from last month. The general business activity index has been in contraction territory since May of last year. The 3-month moving average is up 1.5 this month to -12.5, its lowest since June 2022. All figures are seasonally adjusted.
For all of you following the banking crises in the US and Europe, and asking why this is all happening again, I have bad news: Regardless of what laws are passed, or which regulations are issued, banking crises will recur — and not infrequently.
The pitch for an actively managed bond exchange-traded fund can be compelling, especially when there’s market turmoil and uncertainty
Review the latest Weekly Headings by CIO Larry Adam.
Stock and bond markets were shaken by the recent banking crisis in the US and Europe.
Advisors have always considered the discovery meeting unchallengeable. Why?
Realty Income, A.K.A. the Monthly Dividend Company, has rarely been attractively valued since the spring of 2010. However, rising interest rates have brought the price down to fair value.
Recently I saw someone share a clip from their weather app. It said, “Rain expected at 3 pm,” right above a little graphic showing a 30% chance of rain at 3 pm. What’s wrong with that picture?
The U.S. dollar remains the world’s top reserve currency for now, though its share of global central banks’ official holdings has slipped in the past 20 years. By contrast, the yuan’s share of official holdings has more than doubled since 2016.
Following recent efforts by central banks and regulators to alleviate the banking crisis, Franklin Templeton Institute’s Stephen Dover and Lukasz Kalwak discuss their thoughts on the implications and outlook for the banking industries in the United States and Europe.
Chief Economist Eugenio J. Alemán discusses current economic conditions.
The GMO Focused Equity team has evaluated banks in the context of our Quality Strategy for 20 years, using both quantitative and fundamental analysis to invest in high-quality banks with healthy financials and in our opinion responsible management practices.
Yesterday, the Fed raised its benchmark interest rate 25 basis points to a 4.75%–5.0% range and signaled that one more hike is likely this cycle.
The latest Underlying Inflation Gauge full data set for February is 4.8% while the prices-only measure is 3.9%. Current Headline CPI is now 6.0% and Core CPI is 5.5%.
Yields on 10-Year Japanese Government Bonds have fallen by about a third over the past two weeks, as shown in the chart below.
To help understand the current market volatility arising from the collapse of banks in the United States and Europe, Head of Franklin Templeton Institute Stephen Dover provides his answers to three crucial questions.
Stocks fell and volatility rose this morning as banking sector worries persist.
Gold prices surged to test the $2,000/oz level early this week before retreating ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision.
Yesterday, the Fed completed its regular meeting and announced that it would increase interest rates by 25 bps, or a quarter percentage point.
The latest Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey composite index came in at 0, unchanged from last month's figure. The future outlook came in at 3, up 2 from last month.
Financial markets seem to have returned to trying to time a dovish Federal Reserve turn, but Franklin Templeton Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai says with a tight labor market and inflation running at 5%-6%—don’t bank on it.
In a closely watched decision, the Fed lifted its benchmark lending rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.75% to 5% at the conclusion of its March policy meeting.
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) fell to -0.19 in February, down from an unrevised +0.23 in January. All four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index made negative contributions in February, and three categories deteriorated from January. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, moved up to –0.13 in February from –0.27 in January.
Fulcrum Asset Management oversees $6.2 billion in assets. It is headquartered in London and has an office in New York. Like the other executives at Fulcrum Asset Management, Nabeel Abdoula is enthusiastic about the ability of macro fund strategies to deliver results for the clients of advisors during the tough times as well as better economic/market conditions.
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by a quarter percentage point and signaled it’s not finished hiking, despite the risk of exacerbating a bank crisis that’s roiled global markets.
I’ll explore four tools and strategies you can leverage to improve how your site ranks in search engines to reach your clients and prospects more effectively.
Income-seeking investors are accustomed to casting wide nets after years of low yields.
Silicon Valley Bank was a “vital cog” in the private market ecosystem, which leads to many questions—and opportunities—across the alternative investments landscape.
Both the leading indicators of growth and liquidity continue to suggest growth will slow as 2023 progresses.
To shore up Silicon Valley Bank and the other failed banks, the Federal Reserve extended an open-ended line of credit via its Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) and discount window borrowings.
I am drained having my colleagues and team members come to me with problems because of their frustration with my company.
Smart Beta
Tax Season Should Be About Opportunity, Not Anxiety
Join the experts at Envestnet and VettaFi on April 18th for a discussion of how to make “the Intelligent Financial Life” a reality for your clients.
Disturbing Thoughts
Remember when banks were small? Those old enough to have a bank account in the 1970s should. Back then, most people did their banking with a locally owned institution, often the First National Bank of (Your Town).
The Top Three Catalysts For Higher Gold Prices In 2023
Gold appears to be well-positioned for a strong pump that could carry it to new all-time high prices in 2023—and beyond. As you know, I’ve been following and writing about the precious metal market for a very long time, and I see a number of unique catalysts at the moment that could contribute to higher gold prices.
Stay Focused on the Long Game
In many ways, the process of filling out a bracket is like investing. It requires balancing risk and reward, while maintaining discipline.
Is the Money Safe?
Worries about the health of the overall banking system have led to a drawdown in deposits, with investors yanking nearly $100 billion in deposits from U.S. banks during the week that ended March 15. What’s more, there are fears that the stresses in the banking sector could be the start of the next financial crisis.
Bitcoin’s Stealth Rally Puts It Atop the Quarterly Scoreboard Once Again
Bitcoin’s surprising fast exit from its “crypto winter” has once again put the notoriously volatile digital currency atop the leader-board in the first quarter for being the best-performing asset class by a wide margin.
Price Growth Slows, Stocks Gain
Stocks built on overnight gains and Treasury yields inched lower following today's relatively benign February PCE inflation data.
Moving Averages: S&P Finishes March Up 3.51%
Valid until the market close on April 30, 2023.
The S&P 500 closed March with a monthly gain of 3.51%, after a loss of 2.61% in February. At this point, after close on the last day of the month, two of five Ivy portfolio ETFs — Vanguard Real Estate ETF (VNQ) and Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund (DBC) — are signaling "cash," a decrease from last month's final triple "cash" signal.
This Stock Market Splash Has a Disturbing Undertow
The benchmark S&P 500 Index is wrapping up its second straight quarterly gain, rising 5.50% through Thursday and adding to the 7.08% surge in the final three months of 2022.
Recession Indicators Say The Fed Broke Something
Recession indicators are ringing loudly.
A Contrarian Buying Opportunity For Energy Bulls
Up until recently, crude oil inventories saw continued build after build, suggesting the real time supply and demand dynamics in the market have been tilted toward the bearish side of the ledger.
Tracing Treasury Liquidity Lower: Once the Ball Starts Rolling, It’s Hard To Stop
It’s been—to put it mildly—an interesting time in the US Treasury market.
T minus 10, 9, 8….
The investment landscape is pockmarked by intractable statistics that continue to impose strategic and psychological barriers to the short term potential of portfolio alpha.
The Big Four: Real Personal Income in February
Personal income (excluding transfer receipts) in February rose 0.3% and is up 6.6% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) MoM was up 0.03% and was up 1.6% year-over-year.
Michigan Consumer Sentiment Drops for First Time in Four Months
The March final report for the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index came in at 62.0, down 5.0 (-7.5%) from the February final. This morning's reading was the first monthly decline in the last four months and came in below the Investing.com forecast of 63.2. Since its beginning in 1978, consumer sentiment is 27.3% below its average reading (arithmetic mean) and 26.4% below its geometric mean.
Chicago PMI Down Shifts Up in March, Better Than Expected
The latest Chicago Purchasing Manager's Index, or the Chicago Business Barometer, shifted up to 43.8 in March from 43.6 in February, marking the seventh straight month in contraction territory. This reading comes in above the Investing.com forecast of 43.4.
Real Disposable Income Per Capita Inches Up 0.16% in February
With the release of this morning's report on February's personal incomes and outlays, we can now take a closer look at "real" disposable personal income per capita. At two decimal places, the nominal 0.43% month-over-month change in disposable income comes to 0.16% when we adjust for inflation. This is a steep decline from last month's 2.00% nominal and 1.42% real change. The year-over-year metrics are 7.90% nominal and 2.76% real.
AAA CMBS: Loss-remote, Liquid, And Cheaper Than IG
Fixed income spreads have widened across sectors over the past few months.
Market Volatility and Developments in the Banking Sector
What are the implications of the ongoing volatility in the banking sector, and what does it mean for markets in Europe and globally?
An Inside Look at the GDP Q4 Third Estimate
The accompanying chart is a way to visualize real GDP change since 2007 and uses stacked column chart to segment the four major components of GDP with a dashed line overlay to show the sum of the four, which is real GDP itself. Here is the latest overview from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
11 Stocks: 9 Dividend Payers 2 For Growth
Not all stocks are the same, and not all stocks serves the investor’s needs.
“Not QE” Puts Fed Between A “Rock And A Hard Place”
“QE” or “Quantitative Easing” has been the bull’s “siren song” of the last decade, but will “Not QE” be the same?
Stock Sales Suffer Worst First Quarter Since 2009 on Rates, SVB
US equity capital markets are having the slowest start to a year since 2009, and dealmakers fear a rebound is nowhere near.
Elon Musk Wants to Pause AI? It’s Too Late for That
Elon Musk and an array of public figures have signed their names to an open letter that went viral this week, calling for a six-month pause on training language models more powerful than GPT-4, the technology underpinning ChatGPT.
The Coming Doom Loop
In the face of high and persistent inflation, recession risks, and now a looming insolvency crisis in the financial sector, central banks like the US Federal Reserve are facing a trilemma.
Pay Attention When the Job Growth Dog Barks
There has been surprisingly little worry reported by advisors and readers in the past couple of weeks.
What Makes This Economic Slowdown Different From the Others?
We’ve been watching slumps ripple through various parts of the economy over the past 18 months: technology startups and stocks, regional banks and growing concern about commercial real estate. Yet we’re still waiting for the wider labor market to feel the downturn.
Weekly Unemployment Claims: Up 7K, Higher Than Expected
This morning's seasonally adjusted 198K new claims, up 7K from the previous week's revised figure, came in above the Investing.com forecast of 191K.
12 Tax-Smart Charitable Giving Tips for 2023
Charitable planning is an important topic to discuss with your clients, especially if they’re facing extraordinary taxable events this year. You can add value to your clients by sharing these tax-smart giving strategies for 2023.
How Wall Street Became a Fancy Residential Neighborhood
The rise of remote work during the pandemic has cut demand for office space and left some American downtowns feeling like ghost towns. As a result, there’s been much talk of converting downtown offices into apartments. This could not only bail out owners of suddenly less-valuable commercial real estate...
DIY Marketing That Works
There are many marketing initiatives you can implement on your own that that will likely work. Here are some suggestions.
Proposed Bank Changes and Fed Comments
The Senate Banking Committee held a hearing to investigate the collapse of Signature Bank (SBNY) and Silicon Valley Bank (SIVB/SIVBQ) that brought to discussion possible changes for the entire banking system.
Pending Home Sales Grew for Third Consecutive Month, Up 0.8% in February
The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) released the latest monthly data for its pending home sales index. According to the NAR, "Pending home sales grew in February for the third consecutive month."
Will FedNow Enable Greater Deposit Flight from Troubled Banks?
The failures of Silvergate Bank, Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, and the current struggles of First Republic and Pacific West Bank have seen bank deposits flee to the perceived safety of large banks.
Should You Gamble On This REIT With A 5% Dividend Yield?
VICI Properties Inc. (VICI) from their website: “VICI Properties Inc. is one of the country’s largest owners of gaming, hospitality, and entertainment destinations.
Is the Harvard Business Review Always Right?
A study, reported in the Harvard Business Review, claimed that likability was not important to the sales process.
Some Observations from This Year’s Survey of the Fintech Landscape
The 2023 T3/Inside Information Software Survey is now available. It’s the best guide to the 300+ fintech solutions in the marketplace, and a good buyer’s guide for advisory firms that are looking for additions or enhancements to their tech stack.
S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index Continued Decline in January
With this morning's release of the January S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index, we learned that seasonally adjusted home prices for the benchmark 20-city index saw a 0.4% decrease month-over-month (MoM), higher than the Investing.com forecast of -0.5%, and a 2.6% increase year-over-year (YoY). After adjusting for inflation, the MoM was reduced to -1.1% and the YoY was reduced to -4.8%.
Biden Has to Learn the Same Lesson as SVB
In hindsight, it was obvious it wouldn’t last. Low interest rates — the result of shifts in the global economy, economic stability, low inflation and monetary policy — couldn’t stay at zero forever.
History Says to Buy the Fed Pause. Should You?
A year into its fight against inflation, the Federal Reserve could — just maybe — be done raising its policy rate. History shows that monetary policy pauses mark great buying opportunities for US stocks, but there are several key caveats to bear in mind this time.
The Supreme Court May Quash Biden's Student Loan Forgiveness: Here's What Borrowers Should Do
For millions of borrowers, student loan forgiveness will mean the difference between significant relief and ongoing payments. If you’re among them, the question is… what next?
Weekly Gasoline Prices: Regular and Premium Remain Steady
As of March 27, the prices of regular and premium gas were unchanged from last week. According to GasBuddy.com, Hawaii has the highest average price for regular at $4.78 and Mississippi has the cheapest at $2.96. The WTIC end-of-day spot price for crude oil closed at $72.81 and is up 7.4% from last week.
Confessions of a Currency Manager
Predicting spot exchanges is tricky, but there are still ways of adding value in currency markets, including through a disciplined approach we call currency factor investing.
The Consequences of Credit Suisse
The demise of a major bank illustrates the global tensions in the financial sector.
Favorable Current Strategy - Yield and Duration
Doug Drabik discusses fixed income market conditions and offers insight for bond investors.
From A Deep Dive Into The Banking Sector
Beyond the near-term turmoil, there may need to be a re-evaluation of the regional banking model in the United States, according to a recent panel hosted by Stephen Dover, Head of Franklin Templeton Institute.
Consumer Confidence Increased Slightly in March
The Conference Board released its Consumer Confidence Index ® this morning, with the headline number coming in at 104.2, an increase of 0.8 from the upwardly revised final reading of 103.4 in February. This month's reading is better than the Investing.com forecast of 101.0.
Natural Gas Woes Continue
As we discussed last week in Looking to the Futures, natural gas prices have been plagued by the perfect storm of lower demand and higher production throughout the withdrawal season.
The Case for Gold is Looking Stronger
The Federal Reserve’s balance sheet grew by $394B in the past two weeks.
FHFA House Price Index Up 0.2% in January, Beats Forecast
The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) has released its U.S. house price index (HPI) for January. U.S. house prices increased by 0.2% from the previous month. Year-over-year the index is up 5.3% on a non-seasonally adjusted nominal basis. After adjusting for inflation and seasonality, the real index is down 0.2% in January and down 0.3% year-over-year (seasonally adjusted).
The New Landscape for Growth Investing
Ignore short-term market moves and volatility. The biggest investment returns are driven by a handful of outliers in the long run. Growth investing is for patient capital seeking long runways for companies that will ultimately generate outsized returns for investors. Baillie Gifford is uniquely positioned as a global asset manager that is entirely owned by a private partnership. My guest today, Stuart Dunbar, has identified a few technologies that will be important in driving growth in sectors where we will see transformation in the years to come.
World Markets Update: March 27, 2023
Six of eight indexes on our world watch list posted gains through March 27, 2023. France's CAC 40 finished in the top spot with a YTD gain of 9.34%. Germany's DAXK finished second with a YTD gain of 8.33%, and Tokyo's Nikkei 225 moved to third with a YTD gain of 5.30%. India's BSE SENSEX finished last with a loss of 5.24% YTD.
The Fed Waffles
The Federal Reserve raised short-term interest rates by another quarter point on Wednesday.
Silicon Valley Bank’s Failure Highlights Systemically Combustible Conditions
Many have questioned the importance of the recent bank failures.
First Quarter 2023 Economic Review and Forecast
The economic signals and a host of geopolitical risks confronting investors suggest that 2023 could be as challenging as 20022 for both stocks and bonds.
The Dilemma That Isn’t: Bonds versus Bond Funds
Should investors build their own portfolios of bonds, or buy shares of bond funds? Is there an economic difference or just one of appearance? Are directly held bonds safer because they mature, and you get your money back? How should one decide?
On Quitting Early, the Decumulation Problem and Living to 100
Annie Duke, once one of the best female poker players in the world, helped me understand why people work longer than they need to. This got me thinking about the decumulation problem more broadly and planning to live to age 100.
Dallas Fed Manufacturing: Business Conditions Continued to Worsen in March
The Dallas Fed released its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (TMOS) for March. The latest general business activity index came in at -15.7, down 2.2 from last month. The general business activity index has been in contraction territory since May of last year. The 3-month moving average is up 1.5 this month to -12.5, its lowest since June 2022. All figures are seasonally adjusted.
Regulation Can’t Prevent the Next Financial Crisis
For all of you following the banking crises in the US and Europe, and asking why this is all happening again, I have bad news: Regardless of what laws are passed, or which regulations are issued, banking crises will recur — and not infrequently.
The Pros Fail to Meet the Moment With Bond ETFs
The pitch for an actively managed bond exchange-traded fund can be compelling, especially when there’s market turmoil and uncertainty
Market and Economic Dynamics to Keep an Eye On
Review the latest Weekly Headings by CIO Larry Adam.
From Anomaly to Opportunity: High Yields on Short Bonds
Stock and bond markets were shaken by the recent banking crisis in the US and Europe.
“Not QE” Puts Fed Between A “Rock And A Hard Place”
“QE” or “Quantitative Easing” has been the bull’s “siren song” of the last decade, but will “Not QE” be the same?
The End of the Discovery Meeting
Advisors have always considered the discovery meeting unchallengeable. Why?
Rare Opportunity To Earn Monthly Dividend Income At A Reasonable Price
Realty Income, A.K.A. the Monthly Dividend Company, has rarely been attractively valued since the spring of 2010. However, rising interest rates have brought the price down to fair value.
Recession Odds Rising
Recently I saw someone share a clip from their weather app. It said, “Rain expected at 3 pm,” right above a little graphic showing a 30% chance of rain at 3 pm. What’s wrong with that picture?
Is This The End Of The Petrodollar?
The U.S. dollar remains the world’s top reserve currency for now, though its share of global central banks’ official holdings has slipped in the past 20 years. By contrast, the yuan’s share of official holdings has more than doubled since 2016.
How Is the SVB and Credit Suisse Crisis Affecting the US and European Banking Industry?
Following recent efforts by central banks and regulators to alleviate the banking crisis, Franklin Templeton Institute’s Stephen Dover and Lukasz Kalwak discuss their thoughts on the implications and outlook for the banking industries in the United States and Europe.
Growth in Real Money Supply is What is Important for Taming Inflation, and for the Fed
Chief Economist Eugenio J. Alemán discusses current economic conditions.
Echoes Of '08? Don't Bank On It
The GMO Focused Equity team has evaluated banks in the context of our Quality Strategy for 20 years, using both quantitative and fundamental analysis to invest in high-quality banks with healthy financials and in our opinion responsible management practices.
With Banks in Focus, the Fed Signals (Cautious) Optimism
Yesterday, the Fed raised its benchmark interest rate 25 basis points to a 4.75%–5.0% range and signaled that one more hike is likely this cycle.
Underlying Inflation Gauge: February Update
The latest Underlying Inflation Gauge full data set for February is 4.8% while the prices-only measure is 3.9%. Current Headline CPI is now 6.0% and Core CPI is 5.5%.
What are JGBs Trying to Tell Us?
Yields on 10-Year Japanese Government Bonds have fallen by about a third over the past two weeks, as shown in the chart below.
The Crucial Questions
To help understand the current market volatility arising from the collapse of banks in the United States and Europe, Head of Franklin Templeton Institute Stephen Dover provides his answers to three crucial questions.
Markets Again Under Pressure
Stocks fell and volatility rose this morning as banking sector worries persist.
Gold Bulls Look to Push through $2,000
Gold prices surged to test the $2,000/oz level early this week before retreating ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision.
Market Focus Moves from the Fed to Financial Crisis
Yesterday, the Fed completed its regular meeting and announced that it would increase interest rates by 25 bps, or a quarter percentage point.
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey: Activity Stayed Flat
The latest Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey composite index came in at 0, unchanged from last month's figure. The future outlook came in at 3, up 2 from last month.
What are JGBs Trying to Tell Us?
Yields on 10-Year Japanese Government Bonds have fallen by about a third over the past two weeks, as shown in the chart below.
Don’t Bank On It
Financial markets seem to have returned to trying to time a dovish Federal Reserve turn, but Franklin Templeton Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai says with a tight labor market and inflation running at 5%-6%—don’t bank on it.
March Fed Rate Hike: Sometimes the Moments That Challenge Us the Most Define Us
In a closely watched decision, the Fed lifted its benchmark lending rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.75% to 5% at the conclusion of its March policy meeting.
Chicago Fed: Economic Growth Declined in February
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) fell to -0.19 in February, down from an unrevised +0.23 in January. All four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index made negative contributions in February, and three categories deteriorated from January. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, moved up to –0.13 in February from –0.27 in January.
The Macro Investing Outlook
Fulcrum Asset Management oversees $6.2 billion in assets. It is headquartered in London and has an office in New York. Like the other executives at Fulcrum Asset Management, Nabeel Abdoula is enthusiastic about the ability of macro fund strategies to deliver results for the clients of advisors during the tough times as well as better economic/market conditions.
Fed Hikes Quarter Point, Signals It Still Expects Higher Rates
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by a quarter percentage point and signaled it’s not finished hiking, despite the risk of exacerbating a bank crisis that’s roiled global markets.
Four Tools to Improve Your Site's Search Visibility
I’ll explore four tools and strategies you can leverage to improve how your site ranks in search engines to reach your clients and prospects more effectively.
Taming Biases in High-Dividend Equity Strategies
Income-seeking investors are accustomed to casting wide nets after years of low yields.
Alternative Investments Outlook Post-SVB
Silicon Valley Bank was a “vital cog” in the private market ecosystem, which leads to many questions—and opportunities—across the alternative investments landscape.
The Growth Slowdown Is Not Over Yet
Both the leading indicators of growth and liquidity continue to suggest growth will slow as 2023 progresses.
Fed’s Balance Sheet Balloons
To shore up Silicon Valley Bank and the other failed banks, the Federal Reserve extended an open-ended line of credit via its Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) and discount window borrowings.
Is My Company Really That Bad?
I am drained having my colleagues and team members come to me with problems because of their frustration with my company.